>> HELLO, EVERYONE, AND WELCOME TO "AMANPOUR & COMPANY. "

HERE'S WHAT'S COMING UP.

>> IT'S A HISTORIC MAJORITY IN THE 21st CENTURY.

>> WE HAVE FIVE WORDS FOR THE AMERICAN PEOPLE, RELIEF IS ON THE WAY.

>> REVERBERATIONS FROM THE BLUE REVOLUTION.

VICE PRESIDENT JD VANCE BLAMES THE REPUBLICAN LOSS ON THE IRAN WAR.

WILL PEET HEGSETH TAKE THE FALL?

WE TALK WITH POLITICAL STRATEGIST DAVID IRVIN.

AND AS THE WORLD AND THE ECONOMY REACT, I SPEAK TO FORMER GERMAN AMBASSADOR TO THE UNITED STATES, WOLFGANG, AND THE HEAD OF ECONOMICS AT BLOOMBERG, JOURNALIST STEPHANIE PHILANDERS.

> >> THEN -- >> WE ESCAPED FROM HELL, IT'S TOUGH THERE.

>> I HADN'T EATEN BREAD FOR OVER A YEAR UNTIL TODAY.

>> EMOTIONAL REUNIONS AFTER HUNDREDS OF UKRAINIANS ARE EVACUATED FROM A RUSSIAN-OCCUPIED TOWN UNDER THE BRIEF MELANIA TRUMP BROKERED CEASEFIRE.

WE'RE JOINED TO DISCUSS HER COVERAGE OF THE KREMLIN'S PROPAGANDA TOURS OF THE BESIEGED CITY.

> >> PLUS -- >> IT IS INCREDIBLE HOW THE U. S. IS KIND OF BEING OUTCLASSED, OUTMANNED IN ITS OWN BACKYARD.

>> SEA CHANGE.

AMERICA'S NEW GREAT GAME FROM THE ARCTIC CIRCLE.

AUTHOR AND ASSOCIATE EDITOR AT THE FINANCIAL TIMES JOINS WALTER ISAACSON TO DISCUSS MARITIME POWER AND JUBILANT ALLIANCES BEING BUILT AND TORN DOWN AT SEA.

> >> "AMANPOUR & COMPANY" IS MADE POSSIBLE BY THE ANDERSON FAMILY ENDOWMENT, JIM ATTWOOD AND LESLIE WILLIAMS, CANDACE KING WEIR, NORMA C. WARNER AND PAUL D. WARNER, MONIQUE, THE SYLVIA.

A AND SIMON B. POYTA ENDOWMENT TO FIGHT ANTI-SEMITISM, THE STRAUSS FAMILY FOUNDATION, THE PETER G. PEETERSON AND KOO AND PATRICIA YUEN FUND.

COMMITTED TO BRIDGING CULTURAL DIFFERENCES IN OUR COMMUNITIES.

BARBARA HOPE ZUCKERBERG, AND BY CONTRIBUTIONS TO YOUR PBS STATION FROM VIEWERS LIKE YOU.

THANK YOU.

> >> WELCOME TO THE PROGRAM, EVERYONE, I'M CHRISTIANE AMANPOUR IN LONDON.

NOW, IN AMERICA, DEMOCRACY HAS WORKED.

NONE OF THE SCARY STORIES ABOUT SOMEHOW PREVENTING THE MIDTERMS OR SENDING I. C. E. TO POLICE VOTING CENTERS OR CLAIMING THE ELECTION WAS STOLEN, NONE OF THAT EVER MATERIALIZED.

AND TODAY REPUBLICANS ARE STILL GASPING FOR AIR AFTER THAT MASSIVE BLUE WAVE SUBMERGED THEM.

IT WAS A CLEAR REPUDIATION OF THE PRESIDENT AND HIS POLICIES FROM BROKEN CAMPAIGN PROMISES TO END FOREIGN WARS TO RISING PRICES AT HOME.

SOON TO BE SENATE MAJORITY LEADER CHUCK SCHUMER IS CELEBRATING TAKING BACK CONGRESS WITH SOME CLEAR-EYED REALISM.

>> AMERICANS HAVE GIVEN WE DEMOCRATS THE OPPORTUNITY TO PROVE OURSELVES WORTHY OF THEIR TRUST.

THESE VOTERS DID NOT GIVE US THE MAJORITY SO WE CAN DO WHATEVER WE WANT.

THEY ENTRUSTED US WITH THE MAJORITY TO DO WHAT THEY, THE AMERICAN PEOPLE, WANT.

REPUBLICANS RECEIVED THAT OPPORTUNITY TWO YEARS AGO AND COMPLETELY SQUANDERED IT.

.

>> SO AS THE WINNERS AND LOSERS TAKE STOCK, HOW IS THE WHITE HOUSE RESPONDING TO ALL OF THIS?

AS OF RIGHT NOW, PRESIDENT TRUMP'S ONLY PUBLIC APPEARANCE SINCE THE THRASHING HAS BEEN TO INSPECT THE CONSTRUCTION OF HIS BALLROOM.

BUT EVER SINCE VICE PRESIDENT J DSHS VANCE BLAMED THE IRAN WAR FOR THE LOSS, FINGERS OF BLAME HAVE BEEN POINTING, MOSTLY AT THE DEFENSE SECRETARY, PETE HEGSETH?

COULD HE BE ON THE CHOPPING BLOCK?

LET'S WELCOME IN POLITICAL STRATEGIST DAVID IRVIN.

WELCOME BACK TO OUR PROGRAM.

IT'S GOOD TO SEE YOU AGAIN.

AND I WANT YOU TO TELL ME WHAT YOU THINK HAPPENED.

IS IT THE WAR?

WAS JD VANCE RIGHT?

>> WELL, HE IS PARTIALLY CORRECT, IT'S THE WAR BUT SO MUCH MORE.

IT'S, YOU KNOW, THE WAR PRECIPITATED INCREASED FUEL PRICES, DIESEL, AND REGULAR GAS PRICES.

THERE WAS A, YOU KNOW, A RESTRICTION ON THE AMOUNT OF FERTILIZER WHICH GOT SHIPPED THROUGH THE STRAIT OF HORMUZ THAT MADE IT ON TO U. S. FARMS, SO FARMERS SUFFERED NOT ONLY AT THE PUMPS WHEN THEY COULDN'T FILL THEIR TRACTORS WITH DIESEL, BUT THEY COULDN'T GET FERTILIZER FOR THEIR CROPS.

SO A LOT OF ECONOMIC SUFFERING ACROSS THE UNITED STATES, BUT THERE'S ALSO MORE.

THERE WERE COMPLAINTS IN POLLING AND POLLING ACROSS THE UNITED STATES, CORRUPTION WAS ALSO TOP OF MIND FOR LOTS OF PEOPLE.

AND CORRUPTION IN THE WAY OF NOT DOLLARS IN YOUR POCKET CORRUPTION BUT IN SOME CASES THAT WAS THE CASE.

PEOPLE SAW --AND I THINK THEY BELIEVED --THAT THEY WERE HURTING, AND THEY'D SEE THE PRESIDENT'S SONS AND FAMILY MEMBERS AND OTHER CABINET MEMBERS COME OUT WITH THESE BIG DEAL, WHETHER IT'S IN CRYPTOCURRENCY OR BUYING BACK TARIFF CLAIMS, SO THEY DIDN'T LIKE IT.

SO THERE WAS A WIDE RANGE OF THINGS THEY DIDN'T LIKE.

THE PRESIDENT MADE PROMISES, AS YOU SAID, ON REDUCING COSTS, AND NO MORE FOREIGN WARS AND ENDING THE WAR IN UKRAINE.

AND A LOT OF THOSE HAVE YET TO MATERIALIZE.

THE ADMINISTRATION DID DO A GREAT DEAL ON CLOSING THE BORDER, BUT THEN WHEN THEY DID THAT, THE AMERICAN PEOPLE SAW VERY HARSH ENFORCEMENT.

THEY DIDN'T WANT TO SEE -- THEY WANTED THE BAD HOMBRES DEPORTED, BUT THEY DIDN'T WANT TO SEE THEIR NANNIES ZIP TIED AT CAR POOL.

SO THEY SENT A MESSAGE TO THE TRUMP ADMINISTRATION REPUBLICANS.

WE DON'T LIKE WHAT WE SEE, WE WANT TO CHANGE.

THEY DIDN'T VOTE SO MUCH FOR THE DEMOCRATS AS MUCH AS AGAINST THE REPUBLICANS.

>> OKAY, IN A MASSIVE WAY.

SO WHATEVER WAY YOU WANT TO CALL IT, IT'S A HUGE, HUGE SHIFT.

LET ME ASK YOU WHAT YOU THINK AS A, YOU KNOW, STRATEGIST AND FORMER ADVISOR TO THE PRESIDENT AND STILL A, YOU KNOW, REPUBLICAN STRATEGIST.

IS THIS, AS SOME ARE NOW SAYING, THE END OF MAGA?

IS THIS TRUMP'S PERSONAL SEIZURE OF THE PARTY PLAYING OUT AND PERHAPS THE END OF THIS THING.

LET ME READ YOU WHAT RON DeSANTIS, OUTGOING GOVERNOR OF FLORIDA SAID.

THIS IS CLOSE TO AN EXTINCTION LEVEL EVENT FOR REPUBLICANS IN MANY PARTS OF THE COUNTRY, AS CLOSE AS WE'VE SEEN PROBABLY IN THE LAST 100 YEARS.

DO YOU AGREE WITH THAT?

>> YEAH, HE IS CORRECT.

I MEAN, IN THE U. S. SENATE, SIX YEARS.

ONCE YOU GET ELECTED, NOBODY GETS A BITE AT THAT APPLE FOR SIX YEARS.

SOME OF THESE PLACES THEY HAVEN'T SEEN A REPUBLICAN SENATOR SINCE THE '30s.

SO IT IS A HUGE, HUGE EVENT THAT WILL LAST FOR GENERATION -- MAYBE A GENERATION OR GENERATIONS.

SO REPUBLICANS BETTER TAKE HEED, MAKE COURSE CORRECTION, AND TRY TO RUN.

THE GOOD PART IN AMERICA IS WE HAVE ELECTIONS EVERY TWO YEAR, AND WE GET A CHANCE TO TRY TO FIX WHAT'S BROKEN AND GO AT IT.

BUT TO RON DeSANTIS' POINT, I THINK WE'RE GOING TO HAVE TO COME BACK AT IT WITH JUST MORE THAN A CULT OF PERSONALITY, WE'RE GOING TO HAVE TO HAVE SOME POLICIES THAT RESONATE.

BUT DO I THINK THIS IS THE END OF DONALD TRUMP?

I DON'T THINK THAT'S THE CASE.

I THINK PRESIDENT TRUMP REMAINED VERY STRONG.

I SAY HE STRIDES LIKE OVER THE REPUBLICAN PARTY LIKE THE COLOSSUS OF ROADS, YOU KNOW, OVER THE HARBOR.

HE WILL BE THAT WAY UNTIL HE DRAWS HIS LAST BREATH.

WHETHER THAT'S GOOD OR BAD, HE HAS OUTSIZED CONTROL OF THE PARTY BECAUSE OF, YOU KNOW, PRIMARIES IN AMERICA ARE GENERALLY DICTATED BY THE BASE AND REPUBLICAN VOTERS AT THIS POINT ARE STILL PRETTY MAGA BASE VOTERS.

>> REALLY?

I MEAN, EVEN AFTER THIS WHEN THEY SEE THAT IT IS ONE PERSON, AS WE'VE JUST BEEN SAYING, AND HIS FAILED PROMISES THAT HAS CAUSED THIS, DO YOU REALLY THINK --BECAUSE I WAS READING A LOT OF MAGA TYPES WHO WERE SAYING, ACTUALLY, EVEN US, YOU KNOW, NOT ALL OF THEM, OBVIOUSLY, BUT A LOT OF PEOPLE SAYING THAT, YOU KNOW, WE ALSO DON'T AGREE WITH THE THINGS THAT HE'S BEEN DOING OVER THE LAST TWO YEARS.

>> YEAH, LISTEN, THERE ARE MANY NUMEROUS PODCASTERS, RIGHT, CELEBRITY PODCASTERS, WHO HAVE BROKEN WITH THE PRESIDENT BECAUSE OF THE WAR IN IRAN, THE EPSTEIN FILES, AND SEVERAL THINGS, BUT STILL AMONGST THE BASE, YOU KNOW, TRUMP NUMBERS WENT FROM ROUGHLY 90%, WHICH IS UNHEARD OF, ASTRONOMICALLY HIGH WITH THE REPUBLICAN MAGA BASE, HE'S DOWN IN THE 80s.

MAYBE AFTER THIS WE'LL SEE WHAT THE POLLING LOOKS LIKE, MAYBE IN THE 70s.

THAT'S STILL A BIG NUMBER.

THAT DIDN'T MEAN THAT THERE WON'T BE AN OPEN PRIMARY WHERE YOU HAVE --JD VANCE IS NOT THE ANOINTED CANDIDATE LIKE YOU MIGHT NORMALLY EXPECT.

I THINK THERE'LL BE A ROBUST PRIMARY.

I THINK YOU'LL HAVE PEOPLE LIKE GOVERNOR DeSANTIS GETTING IN.

MAYBE BRIAN KEMP, FORMER GOVERNOR KEMP GETTING IN, MAYBE FORMER GOVERNOR OF VIRGINIA, GLENN YOUNGKIN, AND A SLEW OF OTHERS.

THIS WILL TRULY GET TO BE A MARKETPLACE OF IDEAS I THINK FOR THE NEXT REPUBLICAN NOMINATION IN '28.

AND THAT'S A GOOD THING FOR THE PARTY.

>> YES, I MEAN IT WILL NEED TO REVIVE ITSELF.

AND AS WE'VE HEARD, THE DEMOCRATS ALSO NEED TO, YOU KNOW, GOVERN FOR THE PEOPLE.

THEY'VE ALREADY SAID THAT, YOU KNOW, THIS WASN'T NECESSARILY A TOTAL VINDICATION FOR DEMOCRATS.

WE ALSO ARE ON, YOU KNOW, ON TRIAL HERE.

YOU KNOW WHAT I MEAN, NOT LEGALLY BUT -- >> SURE, YES.

>> WHAT ABOUT THE HEGSETH FACTOR?

YOU KNOW, EVERYBODY IS POINTING FINGERS RIGHT NOW, AND EVERYBODY'S LOOKING FOR A SCAPEGOAT.

DO YOU THINK THAT HE WILL HAVE TO FALL ON HIS SWORD?

>> WELL, THE PRESIDENT HAS EXPRESSED SUPPORT FOR HIM TODAY, YET AGAIN TODAY.

I DO THINK, HOWEVER, HE IS TARGET NUMBER ONE OF HOUSE DEMOCRATS.

AS YOU KNOW, PRIOR TO THIS ELECTION, THOMAS MASSIE, WHO'S A REPUBLICAN, FILED ARTICLES OF IMPEACHMENT IN THE HOUSE TO REMOVE THE SECRETARY OF WAR FROM HIS POSITION.

I THINK THAT WILL ONLY GROW.

I THINK HE WILL BE THE FIRST IN THE DOCKS AFTER THE REPUBLICAN --EXCUSE ME, DEMOCRATS TAKE OVER FROM THE REPUBLICANS IN THE HOUSE.

AND SO I --HE MAY NOT BE GONE SOON, BUT HE MAY BE GONE LATER BECAUSE OF JUST INCREDIBLE AMOUNT OF PRESSURE BUILDING.

I WOULD THINK, YOU KNOW, THERE IS PRECEDENT FOR THIS, AS YOU MAY REMEMBER, IN 2006 PRESIDENT BUSH TOOK A WALLOPING BECAUSE OF THE UNPOPULARITY OF THE WAR AT THAT TIME, AND HE SENT HIS FORMER SECRETARY OF DEFENSE, RUMSFELD, HE WASN'T FIRED, BUT HE RESIGNED, FELL ON HIS SWORD, AS YOU APTLY PUT IT.

SO I WOULDN'T BE SURPRISED, THE PRESIDENT'S SUPPORT FOR THE SECRETARY RIGHT NOW, BUT AS YOU KNOW, THE PRESIDENT'S MERCURIAL, AND THAT SUPPORT COULD WANE OVERNIGHT, AND SECRETARY HEGSETH COULD BE OUT.

HE IS THE OFFICIAL IN THE UNITED STATES WITH WAR IN HIS TITLE, AND WHEN THE WAR IS NOT PROGRESSING AS SUCH, I WOULD THINK THAT HE MIGHT BE THE ONE YOU LOOK TO TO KIND OF SHOW THE AMERICAN PUBLIC YOU HEAR WHAT THEY'RE SAYING AND YOU WANT TO COURSE CORRECT.

>> YOU KNOW, YOU REMIND ME, HE MIGHT RUE THE DAY THAT HE CALLED HIMSELF THE SECRETARY OF WAR.

IT IS ACTUALLY DEFENSE SECRETARY, LEGALLY, BUT ANYWAY, HE TOOK THAT ON, AND HE MAY HAVE TO, YOU KNOW, SEE WHAT --WHERE THAT LEADS.

BUT LET ME ASK YOU, BECAUSE YOU ALSO UNDERSTAND THE ALLIANCES AND FOREIGN POLICY, OBVIOUSLY, HOW DO YOU THINK PRESIDENT TRUMP, YOU KNOW, WHO'S GOT ANOTHER TWO YEARS, WILL WORK WITH HIS ALLIES?

BECAUSE YOU KNOW THAT IT'S BEEN A VERY DIFFICULT AND TRICKY LAST TWO YEARS.

>> YEAH, WELL LOOK, MY GOOD FRIEND MATT WHITAKER IS THE AMBASSADOR TO NATO.

WHO'S THE SECRETARY GENERAL OF NATO EXPRESSES STRONG SUPPORT FOR THE PRESIDENT.

I THINK THE ALLIANCE WITH EUROPE WILL REMAIN STRONG.

THERE HAS TO BE SOMETHING DONE, THOUGH, TO GET THIS CONFLICT IN UKRAINE RESOLVED.

I HOPE AND PRAY, I TRY MY BEST TO GET THE PRESIDENT TO REALIZE THAT IT WASN'T THE UKRAINIANS WHO WERE THE AGGRESSORS HERE, IT WAS THE RUSSIANS.

I THINK HIS MOVES RIGHT BEFORE THE ELECTION TO REMOVE SANCTIONS TO ALLOW DIESEL TO BE PURCHASED WAS A MISTAKE.

MANY IN THE REPUBLICAN PARTY FELT THAT WAY.

I BELIEVE THAT THAT FUEL HAS YET TO BE PURCHASED HERE IN THE UNITED STATES, AND SO THAT'S SOMETHING NEEDING REPAIR IMMEDIATELY.

I HOPE WE CAN SEE THAT DEAN IN THE FIRST FEW MONTHS GETTING BACK.

>> EXACTLY.

YES, INDEED.

AND THERE'S QUITE A COALITION FOR THAT, TO REPAIR THAT.

>> BOTH REPUBLICANS AND DEMOCRATS.

>> THANK YOU VERY MUCH.

EXACTLY, EXACTLY.

THANK YOU SO MUCH FOR BEING WITH US.

AND WE'RE GOING TO PUT THAT TO OUR NEXT GUEST.

WORLD LEADERS HAVE BEEN REACTING TO THE SHIFT, HERE'S BRITAIN'S PRIME MINISTER, ANDY BURNHAM.

>> I FEEL THE WORLD HAS AN OPPORTUNITY NOW TO UNITE AROUND THE ISSUE THAT IS AFFECTING US ALL, AND THAT'S THE COST OF LIVING.

>> AN ISSUE NOT JUST FOR AMERICAN VOTERS BUT FOR PEOPLE ACROSS THE WHOLE WORLD.

VOCAL CRITICS OF TRUMP ARE BEING MORE SCATHING, LIKE SPAIN'S PRIME MINISTER, PEDRO SANCHEZ, WHO TWEETED THAT THE VOTE WAS AGAINST ELITE PRIVILEGE.

IRANIAN OFFICIALS CLAIMED THAT THEY DEFEATED THE PRESIDENT FROM THE BATTLEFIELD TO THE BALLOT BOX AND WARNED AGAINST ANOTHER ROUND OF WAR AGAINST THEM WHILE THE KREMLIN CALLED FOR CONTINUED PEACE EFFORTS TO END ITS WAR ON UKRAINE.

SO TO DISCUSSION ALL THIS, LET'S BRING IN THE FORMER GERMAN AMBASSADOR TO THE UNITED STATES, WOLFGANG.

HE'S IN MUNICH.

AND ALSO HEAD OF ECONOMICS AND POLITICS AT BLOOMBERG NEWS, STEPHANIE PHILANDERS, WHO IS ACTUALLY JOINING US FROM WASHINGTON.

LET ME ASK BOTH OF YOU --I GUESS I SHOULD ASK YOU FIRST WHAT ABOUT THIS SURPRISED YOU?

BECAUSE YOU KNOW MANY, MANY PEOPLE WHETHER IN THE UNITED STATES OR ABROAD, BELIEVED ALL THESE HORROR STORIES THAT SOMEHOW THERE'D BE TRUMPIAN INTERFERENCE IN THE MIDTERMS AND ALL THE STUFF THAT I LAID OUT.

STEPHANIE, ARE YOU SURPRISED THAT DEMOCRACY ACTUALLY WORKED?

>> I THINK, I GUESS, WE'RE NOT SURPRISED, BUT WE'RE RELIEVED.

AND IF YOU THINK ABOUT THE ECONOMIC HEAD WINDS THAT A LOT OF VOTERS WERE FACING, THAT VERY EXPLICIT, KIND OF FAILED PROMISE, BROKEN PROMISE, THAT THE PRESIDENT MADE TO LOWER THE COST OF LIVING, AND ACTUALLY THE VOTERS HAD SEEN INFLATION HIGHER THAN WHEN HE CAME INTO OFFICE AND THOSE DIESEL PRICES AND GASOLINE PRICES SO MUCH HIGHER.

I THINK THE WORRY WAS NOT SO MUCH THAT DEMOCRACY WOULDN'T HAPPEN BUT THE MONEY, THE OVERWHELMING FINANCIAL ADVANTAGE OF ALL THESE SUPER PACs, I THINK IT'S AROUND $12 BILLION THAT WAS PUT INTO THESE RACES.

MUCH OF IT ON THE REPUBLICAN SIDE.

THINK THERE WAS A SORT OF WONDER OF HOW MUCH DIFFERENCE WAS THAT GOING TO MAKE CHANGING PEOPLE'S MINDS.

AND I THINK THE ANSWER WAS ALMOST ANY AMOUNT OF MONEY WAS NOT ENOUGH, ESPECIALLY IN THOSE STATES THAT OUR ECONOMIC RESEARCH SUGGESTED WERE BEING HARD HIT, SOME OF THOSE BATTLEGROUND STATES, PLACES THAT BECAME BATTLEGROUND, LIKE KANSAS, THAT YOU WOULDN'T HAVE EXPECTED TO BE.

THEY WERE ALSO THE STATES THAT HAD BEEN PARTICULARLY HARD HIT BY BOTH THE TARIFFS AND THE TRADE WARS AND BY THOSE HIGHER OIL PRICES.

>> INDEED.

YOU KNOW, THERE'S BEEN A HUGE CONCERN, OBVIOUSLY, WHETHER IN THE UNITED STATES OR AROUND THE WORLD, ABOUT BACKSLIDING OF DEMOCRACY AND THE RISE OF AUTHORITARIANISM.

SO THE SAME QUESTION TO YOU, NOT ONLY DID THE U. S. ELECTIONS GO WELL, PRESIDENT TRUMP CONCEDED PRETTY QUICKLY, BUT WHAT WE'VE SEEN IN SERBIA, THE AUTHORITARIAN NATIONALIST LEADER CONCEDED VERY QUICKLY.

WHAT WE SAW IN HUNGARY WHEN HE CONCEDED, THESE ARE ALL VERY SENSITIVE AREAS WITH VERY, YOU KNOW, ILL LIBERAL AND AUTHORITARIAN LEADERS.

WHAT'S YOUR VIEW ON THE SURVIVABILITY OF DEMOCRACY AS WE KNOW IT?

>> WELL, AS YOU JUST SAID, THAT IS ACTUALLY AN UPLIFTING KIND OF DEVELOPMENT THAT WE SEE HERE AND THERE THAT DEMOCRACY THAT THE RULE OF LAW IS NOT DEAD, THAT IT'S WORKING, ET CETERA, ET CETERA, BUT WITH RESPECT TO WHAT HAPPENED IN YOUR COUNTRY, WHAT HAS JUST HAPPENED IN THE MIDTERMS, I URGE MY FELLOW EUROPEANS TO EXERCISE RESTRAINT.

IT'S NOT OUR JOB, AND IT'S ACTUALLY COUNTERPRODUCTIVE, IF PEOPLE START, YOU KNOW, TO BE JUBILANT ABOUT A VICTORY OF A DEMOCRATIC CANDIDATE HERE AND THERE, ET CETERA, ET CETERA.

WE WILL HAVE TO BE DEALING WITH THE TRUMP ADMINISTRATION FOR THE NEXT TWO YEARS.

AND THAT'S THE REALITY OF IT.

AND EVEN IF WE CAN ASSUME THAT MAYBE THERE WILL BE A SLIGHTLY DIFFERENT APPROACH TO SOME OF THE CONTROVERSIAL ISSUES, LET'S THINK ABOUT THE TARIFF ISSUE, FOR EXAMPLE.

WE WILL STILL HAVE THAT SAME WHITE HOUSE TO DEAL WITH.

SO I URGE RESTRAINT.

BUT AT THE SAME TIME, I THINK THIS ELECTION OUTCOME REPRESENTS A HUGE OPPORTUNITY FOR EUROPE.

WE WILL HAVE IN THE U. S. SENATE A GOOD NUMBER OF NEW MEMBERS OF THE SENATE.

PEOPLE WHO HAVE NOT HAD A CHANCE TO, FOR EXAMPLE, SPEND TIME IN KYIV OR IN EUROPE MORE GENERALLY.

WE WILL HAVE A LARGE NUMBER OF MEMBERS OF THE HOUSE WHO HAVE NOT HAD A PERSONAL RELATIONSHIP WITH EUROPE.

SO WHAT I --MY MESSAGE TO YOU TODAY IS, AS FAR AS I'M CONCERNED AS THE CHAIR OF THE MUNICH SECURITY CONFERENCE, WE WOULD LIKE TO PROPOSE ENGAGE, ENGAGE, ENGAGE WITH THE U. S. CONGRESS, WITH CIVIL SOCIETY, WITH THE GOVERNMENTS, ESPECIALLY THOSE THAT HAVE BEEN NEWLY ELECTED.

WE NEED TO DEMONSTRATE TO OUR AMERICAN FRIENDS THAT CONTRARY TO SOME OF THE IMPRESSIONS THAT HAVE BEEN CREATED OVER THE LAST --RECENT MONTH, LAST TWO YEARS, THAT WE ARE ACTUALLY PRETTY GOOD ALLIES.

AND THAT WE'RE NOT CARRYING THE BALL --DECIDED NOT TO CARRY ANYMORE IN TERMS OF FINANCIAL, MILITARY, AND STRATEGIC SUPPORT FOR UKRAINE.

WE'RE DOING THE JOB.

AND THAT NEEDS TO BE --THAT STORY NEEDS TO BE TOLD.

SO I THINK THIS IS A MOMENT FOR MORE ENGAGEMENT BEGINNING IN EARLY 2027.

WE HAVE A HUGE JOB TO DO TO ENGAGE IN BOTH DIRECTIONS.

>> YES.

IT'S REALLY INTERESTING, AND I JUST TAKE YOUR POINT ABOUT TRUMP IS STILL PRESIDENT, AND AS THE GERMAN CHANCELLOR SAYS, HE THINKS LITTLE WILL CHANGE BECAUSE HE SAYS TRUMP HAS GOVERNED MOSTLY, ANYWAY OVER THE LAST TWO YEAR, WITHOUT INVOLVING CONGRESS, AND HE'S LIKELY TO CONTINUE TO DO SO.

HOW DOES THAT SIT WITH YOU FROM YOUR WASHINGTON PERSPECTIVE WHERE YOU ARE, STEPHANIE?

TRUMP SAID HE'S LOOKING FORWARD TO WORKING WITH THE DEMOCRAT, DO YOU THINK THAT'S LIKELY?

AND PARTICULARLY ON THE BIG ISSUES --WE'LL ASK ABOUT UKRAINE IN A MINUTE --BUT ABOUT THE ECONOMY AND THE TARIFF, WHICH HURT AMERICANS AND AMERICA'S ALLIES A HUGE AMOUNT.

>> I THINK WE ARE GOING TO BE LOOKING AT THE TARIFFS.

AS YOU KNOW, THE PRESIDENT HAS GOT A LOT OF ROOM FOR MANEUVER, AND INDEED, THE GERMAN CHANCELLOR POINTED OUT THE CONSTITUTION GIVES HIM A LOT OF POWER OVER TRADE POLICY, AND ACTUALLY THIS CURRENT CONGRESS GAVE HIM EVEN MORE.

ACTUALLY ABDICATED QUITE A LOT OF RESPONSIBILITY.

AND IT'S GOING TO BE INTERESTING TO SEE.

BECAUSE YOU HAVE THIS NEW CONGRESS COMING IN.

ONE OF THE SORT OF SIGNAL FACTS ABOUT THIS LAST YEAR AND A HALF IS THAT VOTERS HAVE COMPLETELY SOURED ON TARIFFS.

WHATEVER THEY THOUGHT ABOUT THEM BEFORE THIS PRESIDENCY, THEY THINK AND ATTRIBUTE ALL MANNER OF ILLS --THE TRUTH IS THEY HAVEN'T ADDED ENORMOUSLY TO INFLATION, BUT PEOPLE ASSOCIATE THEM WITH THAT HIGHER INFLATION.

AND THE DEMOCRATS FACE A DIFFICULT CHALLENGE.

WE HAD HAKEEM JEFFERIES SAYING, WE'RE GOING TO ELIMINATE THE HARMFUL TARIFFS TODAY.

THERE'S A QUESTION, IS HE MEANING THAT IT'S GOING TO BE ALL THE TARIFFS THAT ARE, INDEED, HARMFUL, OR JUST THE ONES THEY CONSIDER HARMFUL AND MAYBE NOT THE ONES THAT ARE RAISING HUNDREDS OF BILLIONS OF DOLLARS.

SO I THINK THERE WILL BE SCRUTINY ON THE TRADE POLICY BUT POTENTIALLY THEY WILL NOT END UP HAVING A BIG FIGHT WITH THE ADMINISTRATION OVER IT EXCEPT FOR MAYBE IN AREAS LIKE, YOU KNOW, CANADIAN TARIFFS.

ON THE FISCAL SIDE, I THINK THERE COULD BE MUCH --THERE'LL BE MORE BATTLES, FOR EXAMPLE, OVER THE DEBT CEILING.

HARD TO SEE HOW SOMEONE LIKE SCOTT BESSENT, QUITE A DIVISIVE TREASURY SECRETARY, CAN DO THE KIND OF DEALS THAT MAYBE WE SAW EVEN UNDER THE PREVIOUS TRUMP ADMINISTRATION.

>> INTERESTING, SO YOU MENTIONED HAKEEM JEFFERIES WILL BECOME HOUSE SPEAKER.

I WANT TO PLAY ANOTHER LITTLE BIT AND ASK YOU BOTH ABOUT WHAT HE SAID AGAIN ABOUT THE ECONOMY.

>> WE'RE HUMBLED BY THE OUTCOME, AND WE KNOW WE HAVE TO UNDERTAKE WITH THE SERIOUSNESS OF PURPOSE A RELENTLESS EFFORT TO MAKE LIFE MORE AFFORDABLE FOR EVERYDAY AMERICANS, FOR WORKING CLASS AMERICANS, FOR MIDDLE CLASS AMERICANS, AND FOR ALL THOSE WHO ASPIRE TO BE PART OF THE MIDDLE CLASS.

>> SO HE ALSO SAID THAT, YOU KNOW, IT'S THE DEMOCRATS WHO HAVE COMMITTED TO DRIVING DOWN PRICES AND MAKING LIFE MORE AFFORDABLE.

LET ME ASK YOU, WOLFGANG, BECAUSE FROM YOUR PERCH IN EUROPE, YOU HAVE SEEN THE PROTESTS ALL OVER EUROPE, IN YOUR COUNTRY, IN FRANCE, IN ITALY, ALL OVER, MOSTLY MOTIVATED BY ECONOMIC, YOU KNOW, DESPAIR, LACK OF JOBS FOR YOUNG PEOPLE, YOU KNOW, ALL OF THAT KIND OF STUFF.

IT'S REALLY A SERIOUS ISSUE, THIS ECONOMIC ONE, HOW --DO YOU THINK THAT THERE'S ANY WAY TO WORK WITH THE UNITED STATES AND WITHIN EUROPE TO ACTUALLY MEET THE NEEDS OF THE PEOPLE?

>> OH, ABSOLUTELY.

I THINK THERE ARE HUGE OPPORTUNITIES.

LET ME JUST OFFER JUST ONE -- ONE SMALL POINT.

MAYBE NOT SUCH A SMALL POINT AFTER ALL.

CHINA.

YOU HAVE --THE UNITED STATES HAS ISSUES ON INTELLECTUAL PROPERTY ON A HUGE NUMBER OF CYBERSECURITY, A. I. , HUGE ISSUES WITH CHINA.

EUROPE HAS SLIGHTLY DIFFERENT ISSUES WITH CHINA.

WE GET --WE'RE BEING FLOODED WITH RELATIVELY CHEAP AND RATHER GOOD CHINESE AUTOMOBILES.

AND OUR EUROPEAN PRODUCERS OF CARS ARE BEING KILLED, MORE OR LESS, BY THIS INFLOW.

IN OTHER WORDS, THERE ARE ISSUES THAT ACTUALLY SHOULD BRING US TOGETHER IN TRYING TO FIGURE OUT THE RIGHT WAY FOR US IN THE WEST, IF THE WEST IS SOMETHING THAT STILL EXISTS.

I HOPE IT DOES, UNITED STATES AND OUR EUROPEAN ALLIES, CAN WE RESPOND TO THE CHINESE CHALLENGE IN A COORDINATED MANNER.

THAT IS A HUGE JOB.

AND OF COURSE, THE OTHER ONE THAT I HAVEN'T EVEN GOTTEN TO MENTION IS THAT WE HOPE THAT THE UNITED STATES WILL, AFTER ALL THE DISCUSSIONS THAT HAVE BEEN HELD OVER THE LAST ALMOST TWO YEARS, WILL COME BACK TO AGREE WITH HER EUROPEAN ALLIES THAT WE MUST CONVINCE RUSSIA TO STOP THE WAR IN UKRAINE.

THE IDEA IS NOT ZELENSKYY TO STOP UKRAINE FROM CAPITULATING TO --TO CAPITULATE, THE IDEA IS TO CONVINCE PRESIDENT PUTIN TO STOP THIS WAR AND TO OFFER A SOLUTION AT THE NEGOTIATING TABLE, WHICH WE HAVEN'T REACHED.

SO I THINK THERE ARE VERY, VERY IMPORTANT INTERESTS THAT ACTUALLY SHOULD BRING US TOGETHER AND SHOULD ALLOW THE UNITED STATES THAT THE TRUMP ADMINISTRATION AND YOUR EUROPEAN ALLIES TO AGREE ON MAJOR STRATEGIC ISSUES.

SO I THINK IT'S A GREAT AGENDA, IF WE'RE CAPABLE OF USING IT TOGETHER.

>> YEAH.

SO A SENIOR OFFICIAL IN WASHINGTON TOLD ME TODAY THAT THE ISSUE NOW IN THE SENATE IS THAT THERE'S A LOT OF BIPARTISAN SUPPORT FOR UKRAINE, SO IT WILL BE INTERESTING TO SEE THIS.

LET ME ASK YOU ABOUT THE ECONOMY AND POLITICS, STEPHANIE, ON A SLIGHTLY DIFFERENT THING.

SO IT APPEARS THAT ALL OF THIS ECONOMIC UPROAR MAY BE FAVORING THE FAR RIGHT IN EUROPE, PARTICULARLY IN FRANCE.

LISTEN TO THIS.

THIS IS A EUROPEAN LEADER ABOUT THE MIDTERMS.

AMERICAN INTERVENTION REGARDING IRAN CARRIES VERY HEAVY CONSEQUENCES, NOT ONLY FOR THE UNITED STATES ECONOMY BUT ALSO FOR THE EUROPEAN ECONOMY, PARTICULARLY CONCERNING THE PURCHASING POWER OF OUR OWN CITIZENS GIVEN THE RISE IN OIL PRICES.

SO THAT WAS JORDAN BARDELLA, THE PRESIDENT OF THE FAR RIGHT, YOU KNOW, RALLY PARTY, NATIONAL RALLY, IN FRANCE, AND WHOSE LEADER MAY VERY WELL BECOME THE NEXT PRESIDENT.

TALK TO ME ABOUT THAT, HOW THIS --THE ECONOMY COULD BE POWERING THE FAR RIGHT OR NOT.

>> I THINK YOU HAVE A CHALLENGE FOR, ACTUALLY, FOR LEADERS ACROSS EUROPE, BUT IT OBVIOUSLY HAS EMPOWERED THE FAR RIGHT CERTAINLY IN FRANCE AND IN GERMANY BECAUSE THE CENTER IS PERCEIVED TO BE --THE TRADITIONAL MAINSTREAM PARTIES --ARE PERCEIVED TO NOT HAVE AN ANSWER TO THIS INCREASED COST OF LIVING.

THIS YEAR HAS BEEN VERY MUCH DUE TO THE IRAN WAR.

THE UK ALSO BATTLING WITH THAT.

THE WORLD, IF YOU'RE SITTING IN EUROPE, THE WORLD HAS BECOME MORE EXPENSIVE.

YOU'RE PAYING A LOT MORE FOR OIL, BUT IN A KIND OF LONGER TERM WAY, YOU'RE ALSO GOING TO BE PAYING A LOT MORE FOR SECURITY THAT YOU WERE PREVIOUSLY KIND OF BORROWING FROM THE U. S. THE TRADE WARS IN PART DRIVEN BY THIS TRUMP ADMINISTRATION HAVE ADDED FRICTION TO GLOBAL TRADE.

DO WE REALLY EXPECT THE HORMUZ STRAIT TO RETURN TO NORMAL EVEN IF THE WAR RESOOED S RECEDES IN THE NEXT YEAR OR TWO.

THAT HAS GIVEN MORE FUEL TO THE LIKES OF MARINE LE PEN.

BUT ALSO ALICE VIDAL, THE STRIKING AND POPULAR LEADER OF THE FAR RIGHT IN GERMANY, THAT HAS DONE WELL IN RECENT ELECTIONS.

IT IS A REAL CHALLENGE.

BUT IF YOU LOOK AT THINGS FROM A FINANCIAL MARKETS PERSPECTIVE AS WELL, YOU KNOW, A REAL WORRY IF YOU'RE GOING INTO THAT FRENCH ELECTION WITH QUITE --THOSE -- THE POPULIST PARTIES ACTUALLY HAVE EXPENSIVE QUITE SORT OF LEFTIST PRO-WORKER POLICIES THAT THEY WANT TO IMPLEMENT TO TRY AND ADDRESS THOSE HIGHER COSTS.

>> DO YOU THINK THAT EUROPE AND THE TRANSATLANTIC ALLIANCE CAN RECOVER FROM THE REALLY SERIOUS STRAINS IT HAS UNDERGONE IN THE TRUMP ERA?

BECAUSE SOME PEOPLE SAY TRUMP OR NO TRUMP, WE'LL NEVER REALLY GET BACK TO WHERE WE SHOULD BE.

>> WELL, OBVIOUSLY, WE SHOULD NOT TRY TO --TO BE DREAMING OF A RETURN TO THE, YOU KNOW, FORMER STATUS QUO.

LET'S SAY, TO THE REAGAN OR THE CLINTON YEARS WHERE EUROPE WAS SURE THAT IF A PROBLEM WAS GOING TO ARISE, THE UNITED STATES WOULD BAIL US OUT AND WOULD COME, ET CETERA.

I THINK THESE TIMES ARE OVER.

AND THAT'S FINE.

I THINK THAT IT IS OKAY.

IT'S ACTUALLY GOOD THAT EUROPE IS BEGINNING TO BECOME AN ADULT.

TAKING RESPONSIBILITY FOR OUR OWN SECURITY, AT LEAST IN THE NON-NUCLEAR FIELD.

BUT AT THE SAME TIME, I THINK FOR STRATEGIC REASONS, FOR STRATEGIC REASONS THAT I HOPE THE UNITED STATES AND EUROPEAN ALLIES SHARE, IT IS STILL IN THE INTEREST OF BOTH THE U. S. AND THE EUROPEAN ALLIES TO MAINTAIN A CLOSE TRANSATLANTIC ALLIANCE TO ALLIANCE.

TO PREVENT PUTIN FROM TAKING ANOTHER JAB AT EUROPE.

SO WE'RE IN THIS TOGETHER, AND I SEE GOOD OPPORTUNITIES TO NOT RECREATE --AND FOR MOVING TOGETHER, FORWARD.

>> I'M PLEASED ABOUT THAT OPTIMISM.

WOLFGANG, STEPHANIE FLANDERS, THANK YOU BOTH VERY MUCH.

> >> THE U. S. FIRST LADY HOSTED UKRAINIAN AND RUSSIAN OFFICIALS AT THE WHITE HOUSE TODAY.

THIS IS AFTER THE CEASEFIRE THAT SHE HELPED BROKER, A LIMITED ONE FOR THE OCCUPIED UKRAINIAN TOWN WHERE HUNDREDS OF CIVILIANS WERE EVACUATED AND DESPERATELY NEEDED AID REACHED THE TOWN.

BUT THE TRUCE HAS ENDED NOW, AND ACROSS THE RIVER RUSSIAN DRONE ATTACKS CONTINUE ON CIVILIANS THERE.

SO CAN THIS HUMANITARIAN BREAKTHROUGH LEAD TO SOMETHING MORE DURABLE?

JOURNALIST ZARINA HAS REPORTED EXTENSIVELY FROM THE REGION, AND SHE'S JOINING ME NOW.

WELCOME TO THE PROGRAM, AND THANKS FOR BEING WITH US, ESPECIALLY ON THIS DAY.

WHAT DO YOU THINK?

YOU KNOW, HOW SUCCESSFUL WAS THAT LIMITED CEASEFIRE, AND DO YOU THINK IT COULD LEAD TO ANYTHING BEYOND?

>> HI, THANK YOU FOR HAVING ME.

WE HAVE TO UNDERSTAND, AS YOU HAVE MENTIONED, THAT THE CEASEFIRE IS DIRECTLY CONNECTED TO THE HUMAN SAFARI PRACTICE THERE AND ELSEWHERE ALONG THE FRONT LINE.

IT SERVED AS THE LAUNCH PAD FOR THE ATTACKS, AND ALTHOUGH FOR FOUR DAYS THERE WERE MORE OR LESS NO ATTACKS, PEOPLE WERE STILL DYING FROM STEPPING ON THE MINES THAT WERE DROPPED BY DRONES PREVIOUSLY.

SO IT WASN'T COMPLETE PEACE AND HAPPINESS AS THEY WOULD LIKE TO PRESENT IT SOME PLACE ELSE, LIKE TODAY AT THE RECEPTION AT THE WHITE HOUSE.

AND UNTIL THE RUSSIAN SIDE DECIDES --WE MIGHT BE STILL SEEING ALL GOING WAR COMBAT ACTION.

>> TELL ME ABOUT WHAT IT'S LIKE.

YOU'VE BEEN REPORTING FROM THERE FOR A LONG TIME, AND WE'VE HEARD, YOU KNOW, SO MUCH ABOUT THESE, YOU KNOW, THIS VILLAGE WHERE PEOPLE ARE BEING SURROUNDED AND OCCUPIED WITH SO LITTLE HUMANITARIAN RELIEF, WHAT IS IT LIKE ACTUALLY ON THE GROUND FOR PEOPLE CAUGHT UP ON THE FRONT LINES, LITERALLY?

>> RIGHT.

WELL, THIS IS A NEW TACTIC THAT WE'RE LOOKING AT.

IT'S CALLED DRONE AND MINE SIEGE.

WHEN SMALL DRONES THAT YOU MIGHT PURCHASE AT TARGET OR ON AMAZON WITH SMALL EXPLOSIVES ATTACHED TO THEM CONTROL EVERY MOTION IN THE STREET.

THEY CONTROL EVERY MOVEMENT, SAY, IN YOUR GARDEN.

SO YOU CAN'T LEAVE YOUR HOUSE.

YOU CAN'T WALK DOWN THE STREET.

AND ON THE BOTH SIDES OF THE RIVER, YOU BASICALLY JUST RUN FROM A TREE TO A TREE.

THAT'S HOW DAILY LIFE IS IN THESE PLACES.

AND HERE IN PARTICULAR, BECAUSE ALL THE ACCESS ROADS WERE MINED, THERE WERE NO DELIVERIES OF FOOD, MEDICATION, HUMANITARIAN AID, AND FUEL.

SO SINCE THERE WAS NO POWER, EVENTUALLY THE HOSPITALS WOULD STOP WORKING.

EVERY BUSINESS CLOSED.

AND PEOPLE WOULD JUST HIDE IN COLD BASEMENTS WITH NO FOOD OR DRINKING WATER AVAILABLE.

SO A LOT OF PEOPLE WERE DYING, STARVING TO DEATH, FREEZING TO DEATH DURING THE WINTER, AND WHAT'S WORSE, IF WE CAN SAY IT'S WORSE, THE RUSSIAN MILITARY WOULDN'T LET UKRAINIAN CIVILIANS IN THE OCCUPIED TOWN TO BURY THEIR DEAD.

SO THAT LED TO ANOTHER CRISIS.

AND AS FAR AS WE KNOW, THE OPERATION WASN'T 100% SUCCESSFUL.

THERE ARE STILL ABOUT 1,000 UKRAINIAN CIVILIANS LEFT IN THIS TOWN.

SO WE ARE LOOKING AT A COLD WINTER AND THE FUTURE IS NOT LOOKING AS BRIGHT.

>> YES, ZARINA, I HEARD ONE PERSON WHO HAD COME OUT SAY THAT SHE HADN'T EATEN BREAD FOR A YEAR.

I COULD BARELY BELIEVE MY EARS, REALLY, BECAUSE BREAD IS BASIC EVEN UNDER WAR CONDITIONS.

BUT THAT'S HOW BAD IT WAS.

AND MY QUESTION TO YOU IS WHY DO YOU THINK PUTIN AGREED TO EVEN THIS LIMITED CEASEFIRE?

AND I UNDERSTAND SOME, YOU KNOW, RUSSIA-FRIENDLY OUTFITS ARE GOING TO BE ALLOWED TO GO AND, I DON'T KNOW, JOURNALISTS AND INFLUENCERS, GO IN SOON.

>> RIGHT, WELL THAT'S A GREAT OBSERVATION, AND I HAVE IT CONFIRMED BY DOZENS OF EYEWITNESSS THAT SOME PEOPLE SURVIVED JUST ON A SPOONFUL OF HONEY DISSOLVED IN A GLASS OF WATER WHEN THEY COULD GET WATER OR EVEN GRASS.

BUT THAT'S NOT WHY THE KREMLIN DECIDED TO EASE THE DRONE AND MINE SIEGE.

THE PROBLEM BECAME TOO BIG FOR THEM WHEN THEY HAD TO DO SOME DAMAGE CONTROL.

IT STARTED TO LOOK REALLY BAD FOR RUSSIA WHEN THE WHOLE WORLD KNEW OF THOSE DRONE ATTACKS THAT WERE HAPPENING.

AND SO THERE WAS A BIT OF AN INTERVAL WHEN THE KREMLIN WAS STRATEGIZING, AND THEN AFTER THAT, THEY CAME UP WITH THIS WHOLE BROKERED CEASEFIRE PLAN.

AND THAT LOOKED PRETTY MUCH LIKE A COMBINATION OF A VILLAGE OR PROPAGANDA OPERATION WHEN EVERYTHING WAS CLEAN, THE WALLS WERE PAINTED OVER, THE CORPSES WERE CLEANED, THE GARBAGE WAS CLEANED, AND FEW JOURNALISTS INVITED BY THE WHITE HOUSE AND THE WHOLE ARMY OF PROPAGANDISTS FROM THE KREMLIN ARRIVED TO FILM THIS STAGED OPERATION OF HUMANITARIAN ACTION.

AND THAT WAS PLANNED TO WHITEWASH THE KREMLIN'S WAR CRIMES BUT ALSO, PERHAPS, TO GIVE THE BENEFIT TO THE WHITE HOUSE RIGHT BEFORE THE MIDTERMS TO GIVE THIS VISIBILITY OF DIPLOMATIC EFFORT, WHICH WE ALSO COULD SEE TODAY AT THE RECEPTION AT THE WHITE HOUSE.

THERE WAS ALSO ANOTHER PURPOSE FOR THAT, BECAUSE DURING THE CEASEFIRE WE KNOW ALREADY AND WE HAVE THE EVIDENCE OF THE MILITARY EQUIPMENT AMMUNITION ANTI-DRONE DEFENSE PERSONNEL BEING MOVED TO THE RUSSIAN POSITIONS AROUND THE CITY.

AND SO AFTER THIS CEASEFIRE, THEY WENT STRAIGHT BACK TO WHERE THEY STOPPED TRYING TO --CROSS THE RIVER.

>> YEAH.

IT IS REALLY --IT'S REALLY DIFFICULT.

I MEAN, CERTAINLY MANY PEOPLE BELIEVE THAT WITH THESE NEW ELECTIONS IN THE UNITED STATES SUPPORT FOR UKRAINE WILL, YOU KNOW, GET JUMP STARTED AGAIN.

THANK YOU VERY MUCH FOR YOUR EYEWITNESS TESTIMONY.

>> THANK YOU.

> >> NOW, CLIMATE CHANGE IS MELTING GLACIER CAPS IN THE ARCTIC, AND AS KEY SHIPPING ROUTES REMAIN SHUT DUE TO THE WARS IN IRAN AND UKRAINE, ALTERNATIVES ARE OPENING UP IN THE GREAT BIG NORTH.

BUT AS GREAT POWERS VIE FOR CONTROL OF THE ARCTIC CIRCLE, WASHINGTON IS TRAILING BEHIND RUSSIA AND CHINA IN MARITIME POWER.

THE AUTHOR OF SEA CHANGE JOINS WALTER ISAACSON TO DISCUSS THIS.

>> THANK YOU.

AND WELCOME BACK TO THIS SHOW.

>> OH, THANK YOU FOR HAVING ME.

>> YOUR NEW BOOK, SEA CHANGE, TALKS ABOUT HOW A WARMING CLIMATE IS OPENING UP THE ARCTIC TO NEW SEA ROUTE, CHANGING THE GEOPOLITICAL MAP.

HOW DOES THAT AFFECT THE RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN RUSSIA, CHINA, AND THE UNITED STATES, AND WHAT DREW YOU TO THIS BOOK?

>> WELL, THESE ARE GREAT QUESTIONS.

I AM BASICALLY POSING THE IDEA THAT WE ARE ENTERING A NEW GREAT GAME BETWEEN THE U. S. AND CHINA.

AND THAT HARKENS BACK TO THE 19th CENTURY GREAT GAME BETWEEN THE RUSSIAN EMPIRE AND THE BRITISH EMPIRE.

I THINK THE REALITY HOLDS AND THE ARCTIC IS ONE OF THE THEATERS IN WHICH THIS WILL PLAY OUT.

IT'S NOT A ONE AND DONE COMPETITION.

IT'S ABOUT DECADES, MAYBE EVEN A CENTURY OF CONFLICT, COOPERATION, AND BUFFER STATES.

RUSSIA, EUROPE, CANADA COMING IN AND OUT OF THIS LARGER CONFLICT BETWEEN THE U. S. AND CHINA.

AND THE REASON I GOT INTERESTED IN THE ARCTIC IS, AS YOU SAY, CLIMATE CHANGE IS CREATING THESE NEW PATHWAYS, THESE NEW COMMERCE, TRANSPORT, MINING PATHWAYS.

YOU KNOW, YOU SAW IN SEPTEMBER CHINA OPENING UP A WEEKLY TRANSPOLAR SHIPPING ROUTE.

THAT'S HELPING THE CHINESE AND THE RUSSIANS AVOID THE STRAIT OF HORMUZ WHICH HAS NOW BECOME A MAJOR CHOKE POINT.

YOU'RE SEEING A SEARCH FOR RARE EARTH MINERALS, NATURAL GAS.

FISH, YOU KNOW, THE ARCTIC IS ONE OF THE FEW UNDERFISHED AREAS AROUND THE WORLD.

AND SO THIS IS ALL HAPPENING SILENTLY IN AMERICA'S BACKYARD.

AND THAT'S ALSO SOMETHING THAT WAS VERY INTERESTING TO ME, BECAUSE UNDER TRUMP TWO, YOU'VE SEEN TALK ABOUT A DONROE DOCTRINE, HARKENING BACK TO JAMES MONROE, THERE'S GOING TO BE SPHERES OF INFLUENCE.

CHINA CAN HAVE ASIA, EUROPE IS ITS OWN THING, AMERICA IS GOING TO POLICE THE NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE, BUT NOW YOU SEE CHINA AND RUSH IN A VERY NEW WAY.

>> THEY ENDED UP DECLARING THEMSELVES A NEAR-ARCTIC STATE, I DON'T KNOW WHAT THAT MEANS.

MAYBE IN LOUISIANA WE'RE A NEAR-ARCTIC STATE.

HOW CAN CHINA DECIDE THEY'RE GOING TO DO THAT AND WHY DO THEY HAVE SUCH INTEREST THERE?

>> YOU KNOW, JUST AS A SIDE NOTE, IN THE GULF THEY'RE ACTUALLY BUILDING ICEBREAKERS NOW, WHICH IS A NEW PILOT PROJECT THAT AMERICA HAS GOING WITH THE FINNS THAT BUILD MOST OF THE WORLD'S ICEBREAKERS.

AMERICA HAS ONLY ONE SHIP, AN ICEBREAKER THAT IS ABLE TO GO REGULARLY INTO THE ARCTIC.

WE HAVE A COUPLE THAT ARE -- SOME OF WHICH ARE IN THE SHOP, IN AND OUT.

THE RUSSIANS AND THE CHINESE TOGETHER HAVE ABOUT 60.

SO IT IS INCREDIBLE HOW THE U. S. IS BEING KIND OF OUTCLASSED, OUTMANNED IN ITS OWN BACKYARD.

AND YOU KNOW, I THINK THAT WHAT'S SO INTERESTING ABOUT THIS STORY IS THAT IT --IT ILLUMINATES WHAT'S GOING ON IN MANY OTHER PARTS OF THE WORLD.

YOU SAW CHINA, AS YOU SAY, BECOMING A NEAR-ARCTIC NATION, BUT THIS IS PART OF A TWO-DECADE STRATEGY TO REFENCE THE GLOBAL MARITIME INDUSTRY, TO CONTROL SHIPPING, TO CONTROL PORTS, AND EVENTUALLY TO TAKE THE ONE BELT, ONE ROAD PATHWAY WHICH GOES THROUGH THE OLD SILK ROUTE INTO SOUTHERN EUROPE AND ON INTO PLACES LIKE NORTH AND WEST AFRICA TO TAKE IT UP INTO THE POLAR AREA.

SO IN 2016, 2017, CHINA STARTED TALKING ABOUT BUILDING A POLAR SILK ROAD.

AND ALL OF THIS IS REALLY ABOUT CONTROLLING THE BRICKS AND MORTAR OF GLOBALIZATION.

AND THAT WAS SOMETHING, ACTUALLY, THAT VERY MUCH DREW ME TO THIS TOPIC, BECAUSE WE LIVE IN A DIGITAL WORLD, YOU KNOW.

WE HEAR ABOUT A. I. EVERY OTHER TOPIC.

YOU KNOW, EVERY STORY WE TALK ABOUT.

BUT REALLY 80%, 90% OF THE WORLD'S TRADE IS STILL DONE ON SHIPS.

IT'S STILL DONE IN A VERY OLD FASHIONED WAY.

AND SO THE PHYSICAL WORLD MATTERS.

PORTS MATTER.

CHOKE POINTS MATTER.

AND THE ARCTIC IS BECOMING A MAJOR ONE.

>> WHAT I DON'T QUITE UNDERSTAND IS WHETHER RUSSIA AND CHINA ARE IN THIS TOGETHER.

THEY'RE COOPERATING ON THE ARCTIC.

OR THEY'RE GOING TO BE COMPETITORS.

WE SOMEHOW HAVE GOTTEN A FOREIGN POLICY THAT HAS PUSHED RUSSIA AND CHINA CLOSER TOGETHER, WHICH GOES AGAINST 50 YEARS OF AMERICAN FOREIGN POLICY.

ARE THEY REALLY ALLIES NOW IN THE ARCTIC OR WILL THEY BE COMPETING?

>> YOU KNOW, IT'S AN INTERESTING QUESTION.

YOU OFTEN HEAR THAT THE CHINA/RUSSIA RELATIONSHIP IS FRAGILE.

IT'S NOT BASED ON MUTUALITY.

I WOULD AGREE WITH THAT.

I THINK RUSSIA IS BASICALLY A VESSEL STATE TO CHINA, BUT CHINA HAS A VERY STRONG LONG-TERM PLAN TO CONTROL GLOBAL LOGISTICS, GLOBAL SUPPLY CHAINS, AND ALSO TO BE ENERGY INDEPENDENT.

THAT'S AN IMPORTANT PART OF THE RELATIONSHIP WITH RUSSIA.

RUSSIA, IF YOU LOOK AT THE WORLD FROM THE TOP DOWN, WHICH BY THE WAY, WHEN I WAS ON THE U. S. CUTTER HEALY, WHICH IS THE ONLY ICEBREAKER AT THE TIME THAT I WROTE THE BOOK, ALL THE MAPS LOOK AT THE WORLD FROM THE TOP DOWN.

AND YOU CAN SEE THAT RUSSIA IS OVER 50% OF THE TERRITORY IN THE ARCTIC.

AND THAT'S VERY IMPORTANT TO CHINA.

RUSSIANS AND CHINESE HAVE TAKEN OVER THE LAST FIVE YEARS ABOUT 90 MAJOR BILATERAL MEETINGS TOGETHER, SO I DON'T SEE THIS RELATIONSHIP BEING FRAGILE.

WHAT I THINK IS INTERESTING IS WHERE THE U. S. , CANADA, EUROPE, DENMARK, THE NORDIC COUNTRIES ARE GOING TO END UP.

UNDER TRUMP TWO YOU'VE SEEN, FRANKLY, A LOT OF SQUANDERING OF GOOD WILL CAPITAL WITH ALLIES.

IT WOULD HAVE BEEN A NATURAL THING FOR THE U. S. , CANADA, THE NORDIC NATIONS, EVEN SOME EUROPEAN NATIONS TO COME TOGETHER AND SAY, LOOK, WE NEED RULES OF THE ROAD FOR THE ARCTIC.

WE NEED TO TEAM UP.

MAYBE WE NEED TO BUILD SHIPS TOGETHER.

THAT HASN'T HAPPENED.

AND I THINK IT'S GOING TO TAKE TIME TO REBUILD THOSE COALITIONS.

MEANWHILE, THE RUSSIANS AND CHINESE ARE SHIPPING MORE GAS THROUGH THE NORTHERN SEA ROUTE, WHICH RUSSIA IS MILITARIZING AND CLAIMING AS ITS OWN TERRITORY.

AND THE U. S. IS REALLY BEHIND THE EIGHT BALL.

>> WELL, ONE OF THE THINGS THAT PEOPLE WHO WORK IN THE SHIP YARDS DOWN HERE TELL ME IS THAT THE PROBLEM IS THE CHANGE ORDERS, THAT THE PENTAGON IS CONSTANTLY ORDERING --AND IF YOU CAN USE THE FINNISH DESIGN, USE THE FINNISH DESIGN, DON'T KEEP DOING IT.

HAVE THEY SOLVED THAT PROBLEM?

>> IT'S SUCH A GREAT PROBLEM.

THAT GOES INTO A MUCH BIGGER TOPIC.

I TALK ABOUT THE PEACE DIVIDEND AND THE LAST SUPPER.

AFTER THE COLD WAR THERE WAS AN IDEA CALLED THE PEACE DIVIDEND THAT WE WOULD NOT REALLY HAVE TO BUILD AN INDUSTRIAL MILITARY COMPLEX ANYMORE.

WE WOULDN'T NEED MUNITIONS.

WE WOULDN'T NEED MORE SHIPS.

ALL OF THAT COULD BE OUTSOURCED.

WE BLOKE APART THE COMMERCIAL AND THE MILITARY.

AND THERE WAS A DINNER, ACTUALLY, IN WASHINGTON WITH THE BIG CONTRACTORS CALLED THE LAST SUPPER WHERE THEY WERE TOLD TO CONSOLIDATE AND, YOU KNOW, THAT THAT'S HOW IT WAS GOING TO BE.

THE BIG WERE GOING TO GET BIGGER AND PROJECTS WERE GOING TO BECOME FEWER.

UNFORTUNATELY, WHAT HAPPENED WAS ALL THE COMMERCIAL INDUSTRY, WHICH IS WHAT WAS EFFICIENT AND FAST, WENT TO ASIA.

MEANWHILE, THE U. S. GOT STUCK WITH THIS BIG, BLOATED MILITARY INDUSTRIAL COMPLEX THAT DOES EXACTLY WHAT YOU SAY.

THERE'S CHANGE ORDERS COMING IN FROM THE NAVY, YOU KNOW, EVERY TWO YEARS THAT CREATE THIS KIND OF PROBLEM WHERE YOU'RE SPENDING HALF A BILLION DOLLARS IN TEN YEARS TO BUILD A SHIP THAT'S OBSOLETE ONCE IT'S IN THE WATER.

BIG, BIG CHALLENGE.

I WOULD GIVE, AGAIN, I WOULD GIVE TRUMP TWO A LITTLE BIT OF CREDIT FOR SAYING, WE GOT TO DISRUPT.

I DIDN'T LOVE THAT YOU GOT SOME OF THE TECH GUYS COMING IN AND JUST WILLY-NILLY THROWING UP THE CHESS BOARD, BUT IT IS VERY CLEAR THAT WE ARE GOING TO HAVE TO HAVE A MORE EFFICIENT SYSTEM AND DO WHAT THE CHINESE DO, WHICH IS INTEGRATE THE COMMERCIAL AND THE MILITARY.

IT'S CALLED DUAL USE.

AND PRETTY MUCH ALL TECHNOLOGY IS DUAL USE.

CHIPS, SHIPS, WE SHOULD BE BUILDING ALL THESE THINGS TOGETHER.

>> YOU TALKED ABOUT HOW CHINA HAS GEOFENCED THE REGION.

TELL ME WHAT YOU'RE TALKING ABOUT WHEN YOU SAY GEOFENCED.

>> SO GEOECONOMICS IS A TERM THAT HASN'T BEEN THOUGHT ABOUT MUCH IN THE LAST 50 GREERS OR SO.

IN THE NEOLIBERAL ERA, POST-REAGAN/THATCHER REVOLUTION, THE IDEA WAS LET THE MARKET DO ITS THING.

YOU DON'T NEED THE STATE TO BE INVOLVED.

BUT CHINA WAS THE BIG EXCEPTION TO THAT.

WHEN IT CAME INTO THE WTO IN 2001, IT DID NOT FOLLOW THOSE FREE MARKET RULES.

IT DOES HAVE SPECIFIC SECTORS THAT ARE RING FENCED BY THE STATE.

MARITIME IS ONE OF THOSE.

THERE ARE MANY OTHERS.

CLEAN TECH, ELECTRIC VEHICLES, LITHIUM BATTERIES, RARE EARTH MINERALS.

AND THE STATE SAYS, LOOK, WE ARE GOING TO CONTROL THIS INDUSTRY.

WE ARE GOING TO GIVE IT CHEAP LOANS.

WE'RE GOING TO, YOU KNOW, DO ALL KINDS OF THINGS THAT AREN'T NECESSARILY ABIDING BY WTO RULES BUT ARE HELPING US TO DOMINATE THE MOST CRITICAL EXPORT INDUSTRIES.

AND SO THAT IDEA OF GEOECONOMICS IS ONCE AGAIN IN VOGUE.

AND ALTHOUGH I WOULDN'T WANT TO SEE ANY KIND OF A HOBBSIAN WORLD IN WHICH EVERYONE IS TRYING TO DO EVERYTHING AT HOME, I DO THINK IT MAKES SENSE FOR COUNTRIES AND REGIONS, IN PARTICULAR, TO THINK ABOUT RESILIENCY.

AND I WOULD POINT TO THE CHIP MAKING INDUSTRY, FOR EXAMPLE.

YOU KNOW, I THINK WE ALL REALIZED POST-COVID, POST WAR IN UKRAINE, AS THERE WERE MORE SUPPLY CHAIN ISSUES, THAT YOU DON'T WANT TO HAVE 92% OF ALL YOUR HIGH END SEMICONDUCTORS IN ONE VERY CONTENTIOUS ISLAND.

MAYBE YOU WANT TO MAKE SOME IN THE U. S. MAYBE YOU WANT TO MAKE SOME IN EUROPE.

SOME IN ASIA.

SO THAT'S THE KIND OF TREND WE'RE SEEING IN STATE CRAFT AND THE POLITICAL ECONOMY AT LARGE.

>> LOOKING AT THIS WHOLE ISSUE OF THE ARCTIC, I'M WONDERING HOW GREENLAND AND TRUMP'S DESIRE TO HAVE GREENLAND, WAS THAT JUST SOME ONE OFF OR DOES THAT FIT IN?

AND I'M GOING TO READ YOU SOMETHING FROM YOUR BOOK, YOU SAID TRUMP IS, QUOTE, NOT THE FIRST U. S. PRESIDENT TO SUGGEST THE IDEA THAT THE UNITED STATES SHOULD OWN GREENLAND, THE ISLAND HAS PLAYED A CRUCIAL ROLE IN U. S. SECURITY IN THE REGION SINCE THE COLD WAR AS A MAJOR MILITARY ASSET WITH AIR BASES, RADAR SITE, AND EVEN AN UNCOMPLETED UNDERGROUND BUNKER MEANT TO HOUSE NUCLEAR MISSILES.

SO WHAT SHOULD WE BE DOING ABOUT GREENLAND?

>> SO, YOU KNOW, I'VE SAID THIS MANY TIMES, BUT I THINK TRUMP OFTEN COMES TO THE RIGHT ISSUES IN THE WRONG WAY.

YOU KNOW, GOING IN AND TELLING THE DANES, WE'RE SEIZING GREENLAND, WE'RE TAKING IT OVER, WE'RE GOING TO MAKE IT ANOTHER STATE.

NOT SUCH A GREAT IDEA.

BREAKING UP NATO, PROBABLY NOT THE WAY TO MAKE THE NORTHERN ATLANTIC MORE SECURE.

BUT THE POINT IS THAT GREENLAND IS A CRITICAL OUTPOST.

AND ONE OF THE REASONS THAT DEFENSE HAWKS AND FOLKS IN THE SECURITY COMMUNITY ON BOTH SIDES OF THE AISLE HAVE BEEN CONCERNED ABOUT THE FUTURE OF GREENLAND IS THAT GREENLANDERS HAVE SAID THAT THEY MAY WANT TO DECLARE INDEPENDENCE FROM DENMARK IN THE 2030s.

NOW, IF THAT HAPPENS, YOU COULD SEE A BIT OF A FREE FOR ALL WHERE, SAY, THE CHINESE COULD COME IN AND SAY, WELL YOU KNOW WHAT, WE'RE HAPPY, GREENLANDERS, TO BUILD OUT YOUR INFRASTRUCTURE, TO PROVIDE YOU WITH HEALTHCARE IN EXCHANGE FOR YOUR EARTH MINERALS OR MINING RIGHTS, NATURAL GAS RIGHTS.

THAT'S THE SORT OF THING THAT THE U. S. WANTS TO GET OUT AHEAD OF.

AND SO I DO THINK RAISING THE TOPIC AS AN ISSUE, MAKING IT CLEAR THAT THERE IS A STRATEGIC VALUE TO THIS ISLAND, AND HAVING SOFT POWER INFLUENCE IS THE WAY TO GO.

NOW, WE SAW TRUMP KIND OF PULL BACK FROM SOME OF HIS RHETORIC, AS HE OFTEN DOES, AND SAY, LOOK, WE'RE GOING TO PUT MORE TROOPS THERE, BUT WE'RE NOT GOING TO TAKE IT OVER.

WHAT I WOULD LOVE TO SEE IN 2028 AND BEYOND WHEN WE HAVE A NEW ADMINISTRATION IS AMERICA SAYING TO ALL THE ALLIES THAT HAVE SKIN IN THE GAME, NOT JUST THE ARCTIC NATIONS BUT SOME OF THE EUROPEANS THAT WANT TO DO MORE TRANSIT THROUGH THE ARCTIC TO AVOID THOSE CHOKE POINTS IN THE MIDDLE EAST, WHAT WE DO TOGETHER, HOW DO WE POLICE THIS AREA, HOW DO WE PROVIDE A UNITED FRONT, WHAT ARE THE RULES OF THE ROAD?

I'D LOVE TO SEE AMERICA SIGNING ON TO THE INTERNATIONAL CONVENTION OF THE SEAS AND REALLY COMING UP WITH SOME RULES AROUND HOW TO DEAL WITH SHIPPING AND MINING.

BECAUSE YOU KNOW, CLIMATE AND FLOEBL WARMING IS ALLOWING US TO HAVE MORE PRESENCE IN THE ARCTIC, BUT ULTIMATELY, IF WE DON'T HAVE SOME RULES, IT'S GOING TO BE A WINNER TAKE ALL GAME, AND WE'RE GOING TO SEE A LOT OF ENVIRONMENTAL DEGRADATION IN THE AREA.

>> WELL, YOU TALK ABOUT TWO APPROACH, ONE IS WITH OUR ALLIES.

I ASSUME IT'S MAINLY THE NATO ALLIES.

>> YEAH.

>> WE'RE GOING TO COUNTER RUSSIA AND CHINA IN THE ARCTIC REGION.

THE OTHER IS SOMETHING WE USED TO DO UP UNTIL ABOUT 20 YEARS AGO IS HAVE THESE GRAND INTERNATIONAL AGREEMENTS WHERE WE FIGURE OUT WHAT ARE WE GOING TO DO WITH THE ARCTIC, WHAT RULES OF THE ROAD ARE THERE GOING TO BE ABOUT SHIPPING AND THE ARCTIC.

IS THERE A POSSIBILITY OF HAVING INTERNATIONAL DIPLOMACY TO FIGURE OUT RULES OF THE ROAD FOR THE ARCTIC?

>> I THINK THERE IS.

AND IN FACT, UNTIL RUSSIA'S WAR IN UKRAINE, YOU HAD AN ARCTIC COUNCIL OF SEVEN NATIONS WITH TERRITORY AND AREA THAT WAS DOING A PRETTY GOOD JOB.

AT THE TIME THERE WAS A LOT OF JOINT CLIMATE SCIENCE.

THERE WAS SOME JOINT MAPPING.

ONE OF THE THINGS I LEARNED ABOUT THE ARCTIC THAT'S FASCINATING IS ONLY ABOUT 15% OF IT HAS BEEN WELL MAPPED.

YOU NEED IT TO BE SO NAR MAPPED.

YOU CAN'T USE SATELLITE BECAUSE YOU NEED TO UNDERSTAND WHAT'S ON THE BOTTOM TO CREATE SAFE PASSAGES AND DO DISCOVERY OF THINGS LIKE NATURAL GAS.

YOU COULD IMAGINE THE ARCTIC COUNCIL FUNCTIONING AGAIN, BUT YOU WOULD NEED RUSSIA ON BOARD IN AT LEAST A PERIPHERAL WAY.

I THINK YOU WOULD HAVE TO HAVE A VERY STRONG ALLIANCE WITH THE U. S. , CANADA, AND THE OTHER ARCTIC NATIONS.

YOU COULD EVEN SEE COUNTRIES LIKE JAPAN, SOUTH KOREA WANTING TO GET A LITTLE MORE INVOLVED.

THOSE ARE COUNTRIES THAT DO A LOT OF SHIPBUILDING.

THE KOREANS HAVE STARTED SHIPPING IN A TRANSPOLAR ROUTE.

SO YOU KNOW, THERE COULD BE OTHER ALLIES BEYOND NATO COMING INTO THAT KIND OF ALLIANCE.

>> WHEN YOU TALK ABOUT THE ALLIES WE'VE HAD IN PROTECTING THE ARCTIC, THE BIG ONE, OF COURSE, IS CANADA.

I MEAN, IT'S A GREAT ALLY, AND IT IS RIGHT THERE.

ARE YOU WORRIED THAT OUR CURRENT, SHALL I SAY, UNSETTLED RELATIONSHIP WITH CANADA COULD EVEN DRIVE THEM CLOSER TO CHINA IN TERMS OF MAKING RULES OF THE ROAD FOR THE ARCTIC?

>> YEAH, WELL, YOU KNOW, UNSETTLED IS A TACTFUL WAY TO PUT IT, WALTER.

I THINK MARK CARNEY, THE PRIME MINISTER OF CANADA, HAS BEEN SPOT ON TO SAY TO DONALD TRUMP, LOOK, ENOUGH IS ENOUGH, WE ARE NOT GOING TO JUST HAVE TRADE RELATIONSHIPS CHANGING EVERY FIVE MINUTES.

WE ARE GOING TO WORK WITH COUNTRIES THAT FORWARD OUR INTERESTS.

AND YOU SAW HIM COMING IN AS A LEADER IN CANADA AND SAYING, YOU KNOW WHAT, IF YOU'RE GOING TO PUT --IF THE U. S. IS GOING TO PUT TARIFFS WILLY-NILLY ON CANADA, WE'RE GOING TO DO MORE TRADE WITH CHINA.

SO THAT'S ALREADY HAPPENING.

I DON'T IMAGINE THAT THE CANADIANS WOULD WANT TO DO SOME KIND OF MAJOR --TERRITORIAL ALLIANCE IN THE ARCTIC WITH THE CHINESE AND THE RUSSIANS.

I DON'T THINK THAT'S NECESSARILY IN THEIR BEST INTEREST.

BUT CERTAINLY A STRONGER ALLIANCE BETWEEN THE U. S. AND CANADA IS IN EVERYONE'S INTEREST.

AND I WOULD EXPECT THAT NO MATTER WHO YOU SAW IN THE WHITE HOUSE IN 2028, I THINK THERE'S GOING TO BE SOME REPAIR WORK TO BE DONE WITH CANADA, NOT ONLY FOR REASONS TO DO WITH POLICING THE ARCTIC AND CREATING MORE PRESENCE THERE --AND THE CANADIANS, BE I THE WAY, HAVE A NUMBER OF ICEBREAKERS AND A BIGGER PRESENCE UP THERE THAN THE U. S. DOES --BUT ALSO BECAUSE IT'S ABOUT REGIONALIZATION RIGHT NOW.

THE PENDULUM ON THE POLITICAL ECONOMY SHIFTS BACK AND FORTH EVERY 50 TO 100 YEARS.

WE WERE MOVING FROM HYPERGLOBALIZATION TO MORE REGIONAL GLOBALIZATION.

I WOULD EXPECT CANADA, U. S. , MEXICO ULTIMATELY TO COME MORE IN ALIGNMENT AROUND TRADE AND FOREIGN POLICY.

>> PRESIDENT TRUMP RECENTLY STRUCK A DEAL WITH RUSSIA AND WITH PRESIDENT PUTIN AND RUSSIA TO IMPORT RUSSIAN DIESEL AND TEMPORARILY EASE THE SANCTIONS.

WHAT DO YOU MAKE OF THAT AND HOW DOES THAT FIT IN TO YOUR DISCUSSION?

>> YOU KNOW, IT'S INTERESTING, I HAVE BEEN DOING SOME REPORTING IN THE RURAL MIDWEST RECENTLY IN RED STATES, AND PEOPLE ARE UPSET.

FARMERS ARE UPSET.

FACTORY WORKERS AND FOLKS THAT ARE, YOU KNOW, INVOLVED IN MANUFACTURING INDUSTRIES ARE VERY UPSET ABOUT INFLATION, THE PRICE OF DIESEL, THE PRICE OF FERTILIZER.

YOU KNOW, JUST CUTTING A DEAL ON THE PERIPHERY WITH THE RUSSIANS IS NOT GOING TO CHANGE THE FACT THAT THE STRAIT OF HORMUZ AND THIS REALLY WAR OF CHOICE WITH IRAN HAS COMPLETELY UPENDED THE GLOBAL ENERGY MARKETS.

AND THAT'S NOT SOMETHING THAT CAN BE CHANGED IN DAYS OR WEEKS.

YOU KNOW, ENERGY TAKES MONTHS SOMETIMES TO TRANSIT.

AND EVEN IF YOU SAW, YOU KNOW, A COMPLETE CESSATION TO ANY KIND OF CONFLICT IN IRAN, THIS IS -- I THINK THIS WOULD TAKE A COUPLE OF YEAR, ACTUALLY, TO STABILIZE.

AT THE SAME TIME, IT'S JUST, AS THEY WOULD SAY IN BRITAIN, AN OWN GOAL.

YOU KNOW, I MEAN, IT'S --YOU'RE ALLOWING CHINA MORE LEVERAGE BECAUSE THEY ARE THE BIGGEST BUYER OF OIL IN IRAN.

YOU KNOW, IT'S IMPOSSIBLE FOR THE U. S. , I THINK, TO WIN THIS WAR.

I WOULD EXPECT, AGAIN, IN 2028 A NEW ADMINISTRATION TO TAKE A DIFFERENT TACTIC IN THE AREA AND I HOPE TO RECOMMIT TO CLEAN ENERGY.

BECAUSE AMERICA BEING A PETROL STATE IS NOT THE WAY TO PREPARE FOR A CHEAPER FUTURE.

>> THANK YOU SO MUCH FOR JOINING US.

>> THANK YOU, WALTER.

> >> A MAJOR ISSUE AHEAD, OBVIOUSLY, AND FINALLY, DEMOCRACY, ACCOUNTABILITY, AND JUSTICE ALL ON DISPLAY FROM THE UNITED STATES TO LATIN AMERICA, EUROPE, AND BEYOND.

HUNGARY IS OFFERING A POWERFUL EXAMPLE NOW IN A HISTORIC MOVE, THE PRIME MINISTER HAS MADE TENS OF THOUSANDS OF COMMUNIST ERA POLICE FILES PUBLIC, ALLOWING HUNGARY TO RECKON WITH ALL THAT HAPPENED AFTER THE SOVIETS INVADED IN 1956.

THE ONLINE DATABASE -- RESPONSIBLE FOR ARRESTING AND INTERROGATING THOSE WHO WERE SUSPECTED OF ANTI-COMMUNIST DESCENT.

FAMILY MEMBERS, NEIGHBORS, AND COWORKERS WERE ALL SPIED ON AT TIMES BY THEIR OWN FRIENDS.

FOR MANY, IT OPENED A CAN OF WORMS INTO THEIR OWN PAST BUT FOR OTHERS IT'S LONG OVERDUE ACCOUNTABILITY.

AND THAT'S IT FOR NOW, THANK YOU FOR WATCHING AND GOOD-BYE FROM LONDON.

>> "AMANPOUR & COMPANY" IS MADE POSSIBLE BY THE ANDERSON FAMILY ENDOWMENT, JIM ATTWOOD AND LESLIE WILLIAMS, CANDACE KING WEIR, CHARLES ROSENBLUM, NORMA C. WARNER AND PAUL D. WARNER, MONIQUE, THE SYLVIA A. AND SIMON B. POYTA PROGRAMMING ENDOWMENT TO FIGHT ANTI-SEMITISM, THE STRAUSS FAMILY FOUNDATION, THE PETER G. PETERSON AND JOAN GANTZ CONEY FUND, KOO AND PATRICIA YUEN, BARBARA HOPE ZUCKERBERG, AND BY CONTRIBUTIONS TO YOUR PBS STATION FROM VIEWERS LIKE YOU.

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