Welcome back to the table for the Friday, September 26th, 2025 installment.

Market Plus Don Roose is still with us.

Don.

There's a couple of topics that have been nonstop for a few years.

Russia, Ukraine, China.

But Argentina came into the fold this week a little bit.

And understanding some global policies.

We'll get to that in a minute.

But I want to start with soybeans, Bradley and Nebraska always appreciate your questions that you give us.

Bradley.

Let's go with your one for this week.

What caused the meltdown in soybean meal this week?

>> Well, remember, Argentina is the largest soybean meal exporter in the world.

And soy oil exporter in the world.

So the bottom line is they had that holiday where the producer could sell.

And I think that was part of it.

You know, the prices just went lower than they needed to go short term.

But at the same time, remember, we're crushing soybeans for soybean meal.

Soybean meal has is an excess commodity.

It has to compete with ddgs.

And in the world market with Argentina.

So I think it was mainly Argentina.

>> And you referenced it during the main program, talking about maybe some of our domestic or our use of beans is going to be domestic when it comes to energy, which has the higher potential of growth.

Is it the energy or is it the meal here in this country?

>> Well, I think it's the energy.

I think the, you know, we're going to crush for the energy, the oil, really, that's the bottom line.

And there again, we're going to have an excess product.

And that's the soybean meal.

So I think what we're going to have to do is find a avenue that the soybean meal can find a home.

I think that's going to be our big problem going forward.

>> Well, that's been a problem for many things.

It's trying to find a home for a lot of this, and that's a tight end to this question.

Then Don Gary in Wisconsin asking one of the questions that I think sent a lot of people's minds.

Will the tariff break that Argentina just had be the reason China won't be buying any U.S.

soybeans?

>> Well, look at it.

Our export market is really September, October, November, December.

That's about it.

Right now we think that China probably bought for the November slot, 150 million beans from Argentina.

So that pretty much in our mind closes the November window.

So we're down to December now.

The big risk with China buying all South America products is what if they get into a weather problem?

Now you've got a big problem, which is one of the reasons that they shuffle things around between the two.

So it's not just it's kind of that is the issue going forward for them.

>> But do you get a whole lot of concern when we're tied into just one place and one thing being weather as what could save us one, two, three months from now?

>> I know you know the problem.

Since I've been in this business, Paul, is I always say about 80% of these markets are weather.

If you look at it from a producer standpoint, we are the do or don't have a big crop, and we either either do or don't have big supplies.

And people either chase it because the supply isn't up to a higher level.

But it seems like we always can produce again.

So the great equalizer is weather.

You know, South America's soils aren't, you know, like our Midwest soil.

And, you know, they can have some big weather swings.

But so far, talking about weather is that they're near ideal.

So far the wet season is on time.

Argentina has good weather, Paraguay has good weather, so nothing yet.

25% planted on corn in Argentina.

>> And we're having pretty good harvest weather in the United States.

We're going to get this crop out in a hurry.

You mentioned what you're hearing less than maybe what we thought we had two months ago or a month ago.

The potential for you said it'll be the end user who decides maybe if this market rallies.

Tell me a little bit more about that.

>> Well, you know, I think where we're at right now is a producer doesn't want to sell at these price levels.

So you need some kind of a catalyst to push us to the upside.

And I think what it's really going to be is one of the reasons we're harvesting so aggressively right now is because we had so many disease problems.

And you know, when you're doing that, the yield knows most definitely is not going to be there.

So if the end user starts to see this starts to scare himself a little bit, starts to cover.

Because, I mean, our when you're using a huge amount of corn domestically, the way our, I mean, our export front has been very strong.

But what's it going to be?

3 billion bushels out of 16 billion.

The rest of it, we're going to somehow consume domestically.

So I think that's what it's going to be.

Ethanol margins.

If they improve, they'll be after it.

The feeds will cover themselves.

So it's going to be the end user with the funds short 100,000 contracts.

>> You mentioned in the show, or was our neighbor that did a lot of our buying.

So you were referring to Mexico, right, for buying corn.

But we also had export record levels to Japan, Korea and the EU.

>> Well, Japan was always our number one customer, you know, for years and years the EU, you know, some of that is, you know, some of the tariff talk, they raised a lot of crops there also.

So I think some of that is goodwill buying, which, you know, is fine.

>> We'll take that.

That's that's good.

But we also, you know, we need us to be fundamentally there.

Jim.

And North Iowa, I want to thank you for your question.

I did kind of steal it during the show.

I just wanted to give you credit for that.

But let's go, Ronald in Iowa here, if we could, will the possible bailout be enough to stop the bleeding for farmers who are way below break even?

>> Well, we're going to find out.

Remember the 20 1819 bailout?

It was $2.05 on soybeans.

So it seems like soybeans is the big focus here.

Much was was in 1819.

So you know, these break evens are all over the place, Paul.

But they don't work for a lot of people.

They don't work, particularly if your yields not there, which is the big component.

So yeah, I think it's a struggling year.

So you know and then again the government doesn't have the money right now.

So it has to be appropriated.

So the feeling is that the bailout, as the administration says, is going to happen, is maybe pushed back to the next year.

The beginning of next year is what we think.

>> But that's what those farmers in Arkansas and other states have been saying.

We need it now.

We cannot wait until 26.

That's this is the band aid we need now to get us through.

Then there's a group of people that are like, I don't want another dollar going to the farmer because they voted for the president.

Therefore, we got this a whole lot of back and forth going on right now in the country.

>> Well, there is, but the number one thing we have to remember is the reason we support the farmers, because we want to have our own food security.

So that's the reason.

So we try to make sure that we have producers that are trying to make money.

So we're just trying to keep them in the business so that we can go forward.

So I think but the the longer it takes to get a bailout, you know, the producers are going to be forced, you know, bills are coming due, maybe selling stuff before they wanted to.

By the way, last year that was a real problem because we didn't get a signal from the government that the yield wasn't there.

And so there was more selling.

There should have been at least this year, there's more of a signal.

The crop's not there.

>> Right.

And when you said during the show, the September report sometimes isn't, as you know, a big deal.

Well, August isn't normally a big thing.

And it was a big thing.

So you got to stick your neck out and say, we're expecting big things come Tuesday.

>> Well, you know this report you don't.

But I think the next report in October, we might.

But, you know, think about it.

When we got the biggest crop we were going to have was in the August report, we went down to 392 on corn and we couldn't move up after that or down.

292 390.

>> 200 and the size.

>> Yeah.

392 as far as the price.

Got it, got it.

We went down there and then we started going up and we went up, you know, since then to what, two 31.5.

And then we've kind of stalled out since then.

But you know on a price projection Paul, there's a gap at 405 on the downside, these corn and then there's a gap at two 32.75.

So that's kind of this little range that I think the market's trying to see.

Can you get over 233.

Then maybe there's more to the upside.

But you know chart wise it seems like we're in that range.

>> Quick question on inputs here.

And then we have one more question I want to get into.

Let's talk about phosphorus Cyril in South Dakota wants to know well phosphorus fertilizer come down between now and spring.

>> I tell you I mean I don't like to beat on the terrorists, but one of the problems with some of this fertilizer is the tariffs, you know, so far, I mean, I think that most people know fertilizer for the most part is higher this year than it was last year for all the reasons.

You know, part of it tariff, you know, part of it, this and that.

But yeah, it's it's input costs aren't going down.

Let's put it that way.

>> Let's do one recap, one last recap question I'm going to say I took three questions and kind of put them here and together as one.

Todd, Scott and Ricky all were curious about a number of things.

So I'm going to just put it out this way TikTok trade talks, South American purchases, which was the biggest story of the week for the American farmer.

>> I think for the American farmer, it was probably the soybeans, the Argentine, because we're focused there.

And I know we talk a lot about TikTok because maybe that helps us better relationships with China.

Maybe that leads to unthawing of some of these tariffs.

Maybe that leads to some buying by China.

So I would say soybeans, but focus on the other two.

>> Also just don't keep scrolling past us, keep staying with us.

We always like it when you do come by.

Thanks, Don.

>> Thank you Paul.

Glad to be back.

>> That's Don Rose, everyone.

Next week we're going to have that.

We're going to talk about that last government report that caused quite the reaction.

Then we're going to have a panel, Kristy, on Karen Braun and Ted Seifried are going to be here.

Thank you so much for joining us.

Have a great week.

a great week.