>> Coming up on Market to Market, the G7 tone changes with a memo of understanding entered into the mix.

One family's love of farming has cultivated something bigger than the farm itself.

And commodity market analysis with Karen Braun next.

>> [MUSIC] >> I wouldn't be here without my customers.

>> Yeah.

I'd like to thank the customers there.

They're very dear to our hearts.

>> It's about the people that you're working with and the relationships that you have.

>> Thank you, thank you, thank you.

>> Thank you from the bottom of my heart >> [MUSIC] >> Tomorrow.

>> For over 100 years, we've worked to help our customers be ready for tomorrow >> [MUSIC] >> Trust in tomorrow.

Information is available from a Grinnell Mutual agent today.

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Friday, June 19th edition of Market to Market, the weekly Journal of Rural America.

>> Hello, I'm Paul Yeager.

A memo may be the first step to greater stability to the global economic picture.

But first, the ripple effects of the past 100 plus days are working their way through the economic reports.

The consumers password appears to be resilience.

Retail sales accelerated 9/10 of a percent in May as tax refunds provided some cushion for the consumer.

Strip out food services, autos and gas station sales.

The number still added 7/10 of a percent.

Gas prices fell for the third straight week, dipping just below $4 a gallon a year ago.

That average was 319.

The new fed chair took a page from his predecessors, holding the key lending rate steady.

Kevin Warsh.

His first FOMC meeting ended in a unanimous vote, with the board citing caution on the inflation fight.

And part of that caution stems from U.S.

Involvement in the Middle East, which heavily influenced two high stakes meetings between economic superpowers this week.

Peter Tubbs reports.

>> This week, the G7 summit in France became the stage for an official pause in the war between Iran and the United States.

President Trump signed the memo in Versailles, France, the same city where the peace agreement to end World War One was signed.

The 14 point Memorandum of Understanding ends active conflict.

While the details of a permanent agreement are negotiated.

Both nations have pledged to retreat from the Strait of Hormuz to allow shipping volumes to return to the levels of March before the United States began its bombing campaign.

Iran will be responsible for de-mining the strait.

President Trump left the door open to a return to bombing if terms are not met.

>> No president in history has ever been tougher on Iran than I have, and they know that.

And by the way, if they don't honor the agreement, some things aren't even mentioned in the agreements, a memorandum of understanding.

But we have an understanding of certain things without writing it.

And if they don't honor that, we'll probably go back to bombing them until they honor it.

You know, it's amazing what bombs can do.

>> The memorandum also includes language for a $300 billion spending plan to rebuild Iranian infrastructure lost in the conflict.

Crude oil prices saw large drops in both spot and futures prices as the plan emerged.

The G7 leaders also discussed the contentious future of artificial intelligence, global economic imbalances and a surge of Chinese subsidized exports that have challenged markets in the EU.

Members of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations, or ASEAN gathered in Kazan, Russia, for a summit of nations to discuss strengthening economic ties to Russia.

Several members of ASEAN purchase oil from Russia, and the host nation is looking for expanded trade partners throughout Asia.

>> The ASEAN.

>> Russian President Vladimir Putin noted the significance of the memo signing.

Putin then added the importance of Russia exporting fertilizers to Isan countries while also supplying the region with food and energy for Market to Market.

I'm Peter Tubbs.

>> Getting started in farming means clearing a lot of hurdles like land, equipment, inputs, and the weather doesn't always make it easy.

But sometimes opportunity doesn't wait.

You have to be ready to move when it comes.

Now, one Pennsylvania family did just that, pulling up stakes, crossing time zones, and building something new with a value added approach to beef production.

John Torpy has this week's cover story.

>> A brisk autumn wind greets a herd of Limousin bulls and members of the Boyer family on their southern Iowa farm.

Jason Boyer and his wife, Amy, made Iowa their home in the 1990s, venturing away from his family's farming operation in Pennsylvania to pursue their own agricultural vision.

>> When I moved from back here, I wanted to be a place I liked the crops.

I like the cows, so it was kind of looking for that quote, unquote combination type place.

It wasn't going to be the primo crop ground, and it wasn't going to be just pasture.

I wanted kind of the combination because the cows and the crops and the hay and the rotation all can kind of work together as a whole system >> Jason Boyer's dream of raising cattle began on a hay farm in Pennsylvania.

However, that dream was a difficult one to pursue.

Land for farming was hard to come by and even harder to afford.

An FFA trip to the Midwest in the mid 80s gave Boyer a chance to steer his dream in a different direction.

>> I could see what you could buy land for here.

You could buy a whole farm here for what a house would cost you back there.

>> After the farm crisis of the 1980s, prices for farmland in Iowa were significantly less than the cost of farm ground in Pennsylvania Boyer saw this as an opportunity to establish his own cattle operation, with enough space to realize his dream.

In 1994, with two dozen Limousin cattle, Jason and his wife Amy moved away from their families in Pennsylvania to their new farm in southern Iowa With support from family back home, the Boyers began building their new life in Iowa looking to set themselves apart from other producers, the Boyers took a value added approach to their beef production.

>> You know, maybe we only had 50 cows, but if we can take the the the steers and and finish them and sell them at Farmer's Market piece by piece or through beef sticks that maybe that expanded of what, you know, we were adding value to what it was.

>> Seeking to establish themselves outside conventional beef markets.

In 2006, the Boyers began producing beef sticks and summer sausage with a unique flavor that can be traced to the Boyer's heritage.

>> The beef sticks is something we grew in our butcher shop that we had back home.

We did it did Bologna or a beef stick.

We started up at Farmers Market and we sampled and sampled and sampled.

But once you got them people to taste it, that's all it took.

>> Yeah, we've sold them for 15 plus years.

We've we've had the beef sticks around and us three kids, we grew up going to farmers Market 26 Saturdays of the year.

And beef sticks was one of our main products.

>> And Caitlin Boyer is the oldest of.

Jason and Amy Boyer's three children.

The siblings each have their own stake in the Boyer Family Farms operation, with degrees in animal science and marketing, Caitlin helps with making genetic selections for the family seedstock operation and with marketing decisions for their farms, various products.

>> I really love the genetic side of things.

Help select matings.

Dad, my brother Casey and I and Connor as well all work together to make sure that we can accomplish all of those things.

>> The Boyers believe their investment in the Limousin breed is what gives them a market advantage over other breeds.

>> You know, having trim, lean beef, having heavy muscle and good rib eye shape, having a good yield, grades, they're all very crucial with, you know, today's market.

So I think that's one of the main things with Limousin cattle is not only their heavy muscle shape, but their feed efficiency is also very valuable too.

They gain more on less feed, which you know, is a value to a lot of different cattle producers.

>> Today, the Boyer children run their own herds even though they are mixed together, with the one being tended by their dad.

This gives them a financial advantage because they can cover input costs in a more efficient way.

With hard work and a passion for agriculture, the small seedstock business, started by the Boyers has grown into a Limousin cattle operation featuring animals with hybrid traits realized by following the limb flex program, selling hundreds of bulls and heifers annually all across North America, seeking additional revenue opportunities for the business.

In 2001, the family opened Harvest Barn Marketplace, the 1930s former Milking Barn is now a showcase for the Boyer's beef products, as well as wares from various local producers of craft goods.

What can be found on the shelves of the Harvest Barn marketplace can also be found in gift boxes for an online marketplace that reaches across 40 states.

What started as a dream?

A thousand miles from home has become a multigenerational operation, thriving on the pursuit of possibilities.

>> It's just neat that we all get to work together, building and growing, that we all can see the similar vision.

>> Amy and I, we had got married and moved out here.

We had 30 cows, 25 cows, and I guess just a dream or a dream or a hope.

And you know, you never know what, where that road or dream will take you.

>> For Market to Market.

I'm John Torpy.

>> Next, the Market to market report >> Weather and technical indicators provided some movement in the trade for the shortened trading week ending June 18th.

The nearby wheat contract added $0.21 and the July corn contract gained a nickel.

China returned to the buying side of the soy complex.

The July soybean contract improved $0.09, while July meal was even July cotton expanded by $3.15 per hundredweight.

July class three milk futures shed $0.34.

The livestock market was mixed as August cattle increased five.

45.

August feeders put on nine.

17 and the July lean hog contract lost two.

42.

In the currency markets, the US dollar index added 112 ticks.

July.

Crude oil sold off 11% or nine.

27 per barrel Comex gold was up by $11.60 per ounce, and the Goldman Sachs Commodity Index was off by almost 20 points to settle at 64713.

Here now to lend us her insight on these and other trends is market analyst Karen Braun.

Hello, Karen.

>> Hi, Paul.

>> We could easily start with Iran in the United States with the overall commodity picture.

There was a story recently that the thought is for the rise was the inflation from Iran a do you buy that scenario?

And B, does that mean the only way to go is down now?

>> Well, I mean, I think yes, I do buy that because we do have past times, you know, just 20, 22, four years ago, we saw the same kind of thing happen.

But, you know, it's tough to know because obviously we have headlines that are different every single week.

It does seem though, like this time there is an agreement.

There is, you know, a memorandum of understanding.

We're going to be signing this.

We're going to be opening the Strait of Hormuz, and we're going to be hopefully calming down tensions with Iran.

But then we just saw the president say this week that.

But I could resume bombing if I'm not satisfied with the agreement.

So there is always that uncertainty of, you know, do we really have peace?

And is it what we expect?

>> And I should say we are recording this Thursday afternoon and a lot can change between now and Sunday if you're watching the show.

So I just want to throw that out there.

So let's just say it holds.

Yes, we've already seen Wednesday night into Thursday morning the amount of ships that are moving.

Yes, it's going to take a while for some of that to hit the market and refill stockpiles and get things flowing.

Let's take it from a commodities angle only.

What's the biggest, quickest impact we'll see from normal returning?

>> Oh man.

Well, I think the timing you have to acknowledge the timing is because we're now in our weather market for the US.

And we are mid June.

And that's typically when you can see the corn market in particular peak.

So if we do have good weather kind of heading into July.

And right now, you know, there are some issues out there, but we don't really have that weather scare story setting up just quite yet.

It is still early.

It could happen.

But, you know, given the time of year, I just think it could be tough.

>> Well, let's let's maybe put a little weather scare into us for the wheat market specifically, but it's not in the United States.

We've already talked about the dryness there.

It's Europe that's now an issue.

What's that doing to this market?

>> You know, I think that I think that with Europe and then especially Australia, because we've seen the talk about them not being able to get fertilizer, the El Nino coming up, that's going to keep them really dry.

And you know, them cutting acres.

You know, last year in 2526, we had all of our wheat exporters really just firing on all cylinders, huge world wheat output.

But now we've got Europe and Australia now on watch And the US, of course, we know what's going on here.

You know, you maybe start to turn the tide a little bit and you say hey wait, maybe we're not quite as comfortable as we thought.

So there is still a ways to go on this, but I think that that's the biggest difference between today and maybe a year ago.

>> That's the Let's Talk new crop.

If we could, or at least the deferred contract here when we're looking at September, Kansas City has had its own story this week.

Chicago's had a story.

But looking ahead, what's going on?

>> Well, you know, with Kansas City, obviously the the biggest story was with the winter wheat crop and figuring out, you know, where's the bottom here.

And I think right now, you know, USDA is projecting the lowest winter wheat yield in about 11 years, I think.

So I mean, they've factored in quite a bit.

It's a pretty significant loss.

So I think, you know, you kind of stabilize that a little bit.

And now, you know, with Chicago, you're really looking at what's going on, especially with energy prices, because, you know, it's a very global market.

The cbot wheat.

And so like what you mentioned in Europe, we're looking at that dryness.

We're thinking about dryness in Australia, we're thinking about the impact on on grain movements, fertilizer movements.

I think that that that's kind of what we're going to be looking at here in the next several weeks, especially as we start to get into the the spring wheat portion of the US.

>> Which is a question we'll get to eventually.

I want to flip to corn for a minute.

I'm not going to pigeon you on anything.

What's the biggest story right now in the old crop.?

>> In the old crop, I think it's still just the demand.

The demand is really good and it's coming in as expected, maybe even a little better than expected.

And I think that's really that has kept us really in the game for over a year now, especially that strong export program.

So I think that that's the main story for old crop is just maintaining that demand.

>> Well, speaking of the demand, Mexico comes in, but that's 2627 delivery.

So that's not an old crop story, right.

Is the Mexico story enough to keep this market afloat for a few more weeks?

>> Maybe.

But I don't really know that you need the Mexico story, so to speak.

I mean, we know that Mexico is a, is is very, very intertwined into the US corn market.

And we know that they are a reliable trade partner.

And so I don't think that there is anything there that we really need to worry about in terms of corn demand.

But I do think that China is the elephant in the room.

And I think that if we could see any demand from China, whether it's old crop or new crop, that would be the thing that could really change the story.

>> We'll talk about that elephant a little bit, too.

I want to talk about the new crop.

You've had some windshield time here in the last couple of days.

Yeah, I headed up to Minnesota and saw what I thought looked pretty good for a stretch then.

Not a good stretch.

You had an Illinois, Missouri, Iowa story.

How's that new crop looking right now out in the field?

>> I think it looks pretty good.

I mean, when I was driving through Missouri and southeast Iowa, I think some things were planted a little later than maybe in past years because I know they had some issues with some cold weather, some wet weather.

So stuff's a little bit behind where we might normally see it.

But that really has not been too big of an issue.

I mean, things looked really good.

There weren't a lot of holes.

You know, there wasn't a ton of standing water.

I know now after the rains this week, some people really are very waterlogged.

So so that that is an issue.

But just from what I've seen and what I've been seeing from around the country, nothing really stands out right now as being really, really problematic.

>> I'd like to welcome the elephant back in to discuss soybeans.

There's there's been this some weeks we talk about China, other weeks we do, we don't, we do.

We're talking about it now Did China see a bottom and think that was an opportunity?

Is that why the buying returned or was there something else >> When it's China, you can never say that's the thing.

So you know, my guess and your guess, you know, just as just as helpful.

But, you know, I think that given that the soybean agreement that we've made with China is based on tonnage and not on, you know, prices, I think that that is actually a more maybe sound conclusion than, say, if you were talking about corn or another commodity where it's just a, a value based commitment.

So yeah, China wants to buy cheap beans if they can.

And, you know, they're also looking for goodwill from Trump.

And, and we've seen that over the past, you know, since fall.

And so I think that that is that's something that if we continue to see these soybean purchases really come in, I think we're going to start believing more that China is, again, going to live up to the expectation.

>> All right.

The elephant goes, now put that crop scouting hat on that you'll have on very, very soon because Soybean trader 88 wants to know off of X here.

When we're looking at some of that new crop, could you give your forecast for August weather and your U.S.

Soybean yield estimate?

>> Well, USDA right now has 53 bushels per acre for beans.

That's what we had last year.

I have no problem with that right now.

We don't even have pods on the plants yet, so that's way too early.

But in terms of August, we are as we know, we've come into El Nino conditions.

And when we have El Nino going on in the summer, it's not really a big story for the US per se.

But I have looked at some of those analog years and when you are in an El Nino by August, you do tend to get a little bit cooler and maybe a little bit more normal to above normal precipitation.

July is a little bit mixed.

So, you know, July is really big for the corn crop.

So if you get a good July, that's wonderful.

But El Nino doesn't say much about July, August maybe a little bit cool and potentially normal precipitation, which will be a really refreshing change from last year.

>> Well, the last two years we've seemed to have shut things off in July and August.

Exactly.

And we've just kind of had to limp to the line.

But we've also had ridiculously good crops, too.

>> Exactly.

But you can, like you saw last year, you had really, really low August rains, but your July rains were really, really strong.

And look what happened.

I mean, the corn just did phenomenally and even the beans.

And so I think, you know, given that we're planting beans earlier too, we probably should start looking at July precipitation too for beans, right.

>> Oh, that's oh, I hadn't even thought about it that way.

All right.

I need some number help here.

Cattle on feed came out just before we recorded today.

On Thursday on feed for May 1st, 102% placed 90% fed cattle market at 88%.

Which numbers jumps out to you the most?

>> I think both the on feed and the Marketings, because they were just a little bit lighter than the market expected.

And I think that when you see that 88% marketing number, you know, maybe you might think that would be kind of a more bearish factor.

But I think in this situation, I think both of those numbers are actually just really reflecting the tightness in the supply right now.

And I think that when you look at the bigger picture, these numbers that we got, they are supporting the wider narrative.

So, you know, nothing really changes here with the numbers that we got.

I think that, yeah, we just don't have a lot of supplies out there.

>> And the Screwworm is still impacting both the feed feeder market and the live cattle market, but pretty good gains in both of them this week.

What drove the live cattle drive?

>> Well, I think that you're looking at demand right now, especially because, you know, when you start to talk about peace in the Middle East, oil prices are coming down.

That can often trigger, you know, sentiment on consumer demand.

So, you know, we've seen super resilient beef demand.

It's been going on for months, if not at least a year.

And so I think that we have not really gotten to that point where the consumer has walked away from beef.

I sure haven't I don't know if you have, but I have yet to.

So I think that we're still it's still very much a demand story.

And we're waiting for that tide to turn.

Just no signs of that yet.

>> But they're not walking to the hog market, though, and buying a lot of pork right now.

So why can that market not seem to catch a break?

>> Well, I think in the hogs you have a bit more of a stable production situation.

You know, not quite this story.

And and the threats you mentioned screwworm in the cattle.

You don't really have that that story in the hogs.

But I think what's interesting about the hogs is that the funds are actually short hogs right now.

There's been a big sell off the last several weeks.

You know, we've we've gone way down and the funds actually don't typically stay short.

Hogs.

They're very rarely living on the short side.

So if that maybe says anything about where we're at, I don't know.

Will it be short lived or not?

>> It it takes just a few things to move and all of a sudden the floodgates open because people like a Partey, they like to be included in it.

Oh yeah, that's the way it goes.

Yeah.

All right.

Thanks for including us in your schedule.

Good to see you as well as always, Karen.

Thank you.

All right.

That's Karen Braun and you've been watching the analysis portion of this program.

In a moment, the two of us are going to continue our discussion in an online only segment.

You can find that by searching Market Plus with Karen Braun wherever you get your podcasts.

You can also go to our website at Markettomarket.org to listen.

Now, our YouTube channel is full of all video things of this program.

That's episodes, the Market Plus, the stories, as well as the MtoM podcast.

Subscribe today to be the first to know when new content arrives@youtube.com slash Market to Market.

Next week, a growing effort to protect farmland from development.

Thank you so much for watching.

Have a great week.

>> [MUSIC] [MUSIC] [MUSIC] >> Market to market is a production of Iowa PBS, which is solely responsible for its content >> Market to market is made possible in part by a grant from the Corporation for Public Broadcasting.

>> Support for Market to Market has been provided by a bequest from Philip Leeds of L Iowa in recognition of public television's commitment to agricultural programing.

>> [MUSIC] >> I wouldn't be here without my customers.

>> Yeah, I'd like to thank the customers.

They're.

They're very dear to our hearts.

>> It's about the people that you're working with and the relationships that you have.

>> Thank you, thank you, thank you.

>> Thank you from the bottom of my heart.

>> [MUSIC] >> Tomorrow for over 100 years, we've worked to help our customers be ready for tomorrow.

Trust in tomorrow.

Information is available from a Grinnell Mutual agent today.

>> This week on Market to Market.

A growing effort to protect farmland from development and commodity market analysis with Shawn Hackett.

Market to market.

The weekly Journal of Rural America.

>> [MUSIC]